- Indonesian supply risks continue to support prices
- Portside stocks remain stable, freights hold firm
Indian portside prices of Indonesian thermal coal remained largely stable during the week ended 31 July 2026, as subdued industrial demand and ample domestic coal availability continued to limit fresh import buying. Buyers largely maintained a need-based procurement strategy, supported by comfortable domestic supplies and adequate inventories, preventing any significant movement in imported coal prices despite firmness in freight markets.
Portside prices: Higher-CV grades stable, low-CV coal eases
Premium 5,000 GAR Indonesian coal prices remained unchanged w-o-w at around INR 10,500/t at Kandla and INR 10,400/t at Vizag, as balanced supply conditions offset weak buying interest from industrial consumers. Similarly, 4,200 GAR coal prices held steady at approximately INR 8,700/t at Kandla and INR 8,600/t at Vizag, reflecting a broadly balanced market.
In contrast, 3,400 GAR Indonesian coal declined marginally by around INR 100/t w-o-w to nearly INR 7,000/t at Navlakhi, pressured by limited demand and sufficient availability of lower-calorific-value material.
Market participants indicated, “Trading activity remained subdued, with procurement largely confined to immediate consumption requirements. Smaller industrial consumers continued to favour MIFA-grade coal, citing its year-round availability, lower inventory requirements and superior cost competitiveness. Meanwhile, demand for mid-calorific-value imported coal remained weak due to abundant port inventories and limited downstream consumption, prompting several buyers to shift towards MIFA grades.”
Indonesian supply risks provide underlying market support
Although buying activity remained weak, emerging supply-side concerns in Indonesia continued to lend underlying support to the market. Below-normal rainfall across parts of Kalimantan and Sumatra has raised concerns over declining river levels, potentially slowing barge transportation from inland mines to export terminals during the peak dry season. At the same time, firm regional coal demand and continued uncertainty surrounding Indonesia’s production quota approvals have encouraged miners to remain cautious in committing export volumes, limiting the potential for aggressive price declines.
Freight: Stable vessel rates provide cost stability
Ocean freights remained largely stable during the assessment week, with Supramax freight on the East Kalimantan-Navlakhi route holding steady w-o-w at approximately $22.3/t. Stable freight levels reflected a balanced shipping market, with vessel availability broadly matching cargo demand and no major disruptions affecting freight movements. As a result, delivered import costs remained largely unchanged, providing stability to the landed cost of Indonesian thermal coal into India.
Port inventories remain balanced as arrivals match offtake
Thermal coal inventories at major Indian ports remained broadly stable, easing marginally to 14.21 million tonnes (mnt) from 14.25 mnt in the previous week. Inventory drawdowns at Kandla, Dhamra, Hazira and Vizag were largely offset by fresh arrivals at Mundra, Navlakhi, Tuticorin and Mangalore, indicating that import arrivals remained broadly aligned with cargo evacuations. Stable inventory levels suggest that consumers continued to procure imported coal selectively while relying primarily on adequate domestic supplies.
Power plant coal stocks ease
Coal inventories at Indian thermal power plants declined by around 4% w-o-w to 38.27 million tonnes (mnt) as of 30 July 2026, equivalent to nearly 12 days of consumption. Despite the weekly drawdown, inventory levels remained sufficient to comfortably meet power sector requirements, reflecting continued healthy domestic coal availability. However, around 32 thermal power plants continued to report critical stock levels, primarily due to localised logistics and coal distribution bottlenecks rather than any systemic shortage in domestic coal supply.
Global coal benchmarks soften on subdued buying
International thermal coal prices continued to weaken during the week as buying interest remained subdued across key importing markets. Indonesian benchmark prices for 5,800 GAR, 4,200 GAR and 3,400 GAR coal declined marginally, reflecting cautious procurement by overseas buyers despite ongoing supply-side concerns.
Outlook
Indian portside thermal coal prices are likely to remain largely stable in the near term, supported by comfortable domestic coal availability and subdued industrial demand, which continue to limit import requirements. However, potential supply constraints in Indonesia, cautious miner selling, firm regional demand, and elevated ocean freight rates are expected to provide a floor to prices, keeping the market broadly balanced with limited price volatility in the coming weeks.
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