- Higher Asian exports cap aluminium price upside
- Easing Gulf supply concerns temper aluminium rally
LME aluminium prices remained firm in the week ended 24 July 2026, with the three-month contract averaging $3,169/t, up 0.4% w-o-w from $3,155/t recorded in the previous week.
Prices traded within a narrow range during the week as the market balanced persistent tightness in exchange inventories against improving global supply expectations. Although aluminium prices remained supported by low visible stocks, gains were capped by easing concerns over supply disruptions following stronger exports from China and Indonesia and a gradual recovery in Gulf production.
W-o-w, LME aluminium inventories declined by 2.3% to an average of 276,555 t from 283,125 t a week earlier. The continued drawdown in exchange stocks reflected sustained physical demand and limited spot availability, providing underlying support to aluminium prices despite the modest weekly gain.
What impacted aluminium prices?
LME aluminium prices remained resilient during the week ended 24 July, supported primarily by declining exchange inventories and tighter physical market conditions. LME warehouse stocks continued to trend lower, reinforcing concerns over immediate metal availability and supporting investor sentiment.
However, upside remained limited as market participants grew increasingly confident that higher exports from China and Indonesia would help offset production losses in the Gulf caused by recent geopolitical disruptions. This reduced the geopolitical risk premium that had supported aluminium prices in previous weeks.
At the same time, improving expectations surrounding the gradual restoration of production at affected Gulf smelters and stable global manufacturing activity helped keep prices range-bound. Market participants also remained cautious ahead of further developments surrounding global trade policies and physical premiums across major consuming regions.
Outlook
LME aluminium prices are expected to remain firm in the near term. Continued declines in exchange inventories and tight physical availability are likely to provide underlying support. However, improving global supply, stronger exports from China and Indonesia, and easing concerns over Gulf supply disruptions may limit further upside, while macroeconomic developments and trade policy announcements will continue to influence market direction.
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