- Urgency to secure available quota allocations sustains trade in EU
- Hormuz disruptions continue to constrain Middle East trade flows
Indian HRC export activity showed mixed regional trends during the assessment week ended 21 July. Buying interest in the EU strengthened as greater clarity over the revised country-wise quota framework encouraged buyers to return to the market and secure available quota allocations. In contrast, persistent logistical disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz continued to weigh on Middle East trade flows, while weak downstream demand kept buying interest subdued in Vietnam.
HRC export offers to the EU rise w-o-w: Indian HRC export offers to the EU increased by $5/t w-o-w to around $580/t FOB, compared with $575/t a week earlier. Moreover, a major steel producer has received a booking for around 30,000 t of HRC at similar levels for August 2026 shipments.
An EU-based source stated, “Market activity has improved as buyers seek to secure available quota allocations before they are exhausted and avoid the 50% out-of-quota duty. However, caution persists due to uncertainty over the pace of quota utilisation and the potential cost implications once duty-free quotas are exhausted.”
HRC export offers to Middle East, Southeast Asia decline w-o-w: Indian HRC export offers to the Middle East and Southeast Asia declined by $5/t w-o-w to around $535/t FOB from $540/t a week earlier, driven by lower offers to both the Middle East and Vietnam.
Indian HRC export offers to the Middle East fell by $10/t w-o-w to around $530/t FOB from $540/t in the previous week, with freight to Jeddah estimated at approximately $60/t. In contrast, Chinese HRC export offers to the region remained unchanged w-o-w at around $560/t CFR Jeddah.
A Middle East-based source said, “Escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz over the past 10 days have significantly disrupted vessel movements, creating logistical challenges for cargoes bound for GCC ports. Given the ongoing uncertainty, trade flows are expected to remain constrained until tensions ease and regular transit through the Strait of Hormuz resumes.”
Similarly, Indian HRC export offers to Vietnam declined by $5/t w-o-w to around $520/t CFR Ho Chi Minh City from $525/t a week earlier, as muted buying interest from Vietnamese buyers continued to weigh on prices.
Outlook
Indian HRC export activity is likely to remain mixed across major destinations in the coming week. Demand from the EU is expected to remain firm as buyers continue securing material to utilise available duty-free quotas amid concerns over faster exhaustion and the risk of higher out-of-quota duties. In contrast, persistent shipping disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz are expected to constrain trade flows to the Middle East, while weak downstream demand in Vietnam is likely to keep import buying interest subdued.
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