Indonesia: Coal production hits 367 mnt in H1CY’26, exceeding half of annual RKAB target

• Y-o-y decline remains minimal, with H1CY’25 output at 372 mnt
• Higher Indonesian coal output may lift global thermal coal supply

Mysteel Global: Indonesia produced 367.06 million tonnes (mnt) of coal in the first half of 2026, accounting for 61.2% of the government’s annual Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) target of 600 mnt, according to a report by Bloomberg Technoz, citing Asep Kurnia Permana, Director of Coal Business Development at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM).

Of the total, 81.58 mnt were allocated to meet Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) requirements, while 231 mnt were directed to export markets, Permana said on July 15.

With H1 output already exceeding half of the 600-mnt annual target, the official stated that “the coal production target for 2026 is 733 mnt,” the report cited the official as saying.

This target has substantially broken Jakarta’s initial production limit. Early this year, the ESDM set the 2026 RKAB production quota at 600 mnt, down sharply from nearly 790 mnt of actual output in 2025 (later revised to 817.5 mnt), as part of efforts to tighten global supply and support coal prices, as Mysteel Global learnt.

By contrast, the country’s coal output in H1CY’25 hit 371.66 mnt, according to ESDM data as reported by CNBC Indonesia, indicating the y-o-y decline was minimal and the actual supply had not been as tight as expected.

Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia signalled in early June that the quota could be revised upward in response to rising prices and supply tightness. Miners can apply to revise their RKAB quotas by the end of July if they believe their current quotas are too low.

The production data emerges amid a rally in global thermal coal prices. ICE Newcastle thermal coal futures for the next-month delivery settled at $132/tonne on 16 July, the highest in a month, supported by Indonesia’s export policy uncertainty, strong summer demand across Asia, and Middle East-driven energy supply concerns.

Market participants are closely watching whether Indonesia will follow through with planned RKAB revisions. Any adjustment to the 600-mnt cap could significantly affect global seaborne thermal coal supply, given Indonesia’s position as the world’s largest exporter of the fuel.

Note: This article has been written in accordance with a content exchange agreement between Mysteel Global and BigMint.