- Lower inventories at port-side allowed short-term restocking
- Greater export realisations attract sellers to turn overseas
BigMint’s India pellet (Fe 63%, 3-3.5% Al2O3) export index increased by $2/t w-o-w to $103/t FOB east coast on 15 July 2026, supported by improving export trade and stronger deal activity. Although steel demand in China remained seasonally weak, mills increased purchases of Indian pellets as lump premiums crossed 20$/dmtu, reducing the competitiveness of South African lump ore. At the same time, export realisations remained broadly at par with domestic prices, encouraging Indian suppliers to conclude more overseas deals.
According to market participants, a Central India-based pellet producer concluded a cargo of higher-grade pellets (Fe 64.5%, 3-3.5% Al2O3) at around $117-118/t CFR China during the week after negotiations, while seller indications were initially heard near $120/t CFR.
Moreover, another regular-grade pellet (Fe 63%, 3-3.5% Al2O3) deal was heard being concluded at $116-118/t CFR levels.
In the last two weeks decent quantity of pellet export deals (over 400,000 t ) getting concluded at the range of $116-118/t CFR China.
Meanwhile, pellet inventories across 34 major Chinese ports declined marginally by 0.08 mnt w-o-w to 5.99 mnt, indicating steady consumption despite comfortable overall iron ore availability.
Rationale
- Zero (0) confirmed deal from India’s east coast was recorded in this publishing window for T1 trade, and, therefore, this category was allotted 0% weightage for today’s price calculations. Click here for the detailed methodology.
- Thirteen (13) indicative prices were received, and eleven (11) were considered for the calculation of the index and given a balance 100% weightage.
Market updates
Export trading activity improved during the assessment period as negotiations between buyers and sellers became more active. Market participants reported four pellet cargoes concluded over the past week, indicating a gradual recovery in liquidity after several weeks of subdued trading.
Buying interest from China strengthened despite the seasonal slowdown in steel demand. Participants attributed this to lump premiums crossing 20$/dmtu, which reduced the cost competitiveness of South African lump ore and prompted mills to increase purchases of Indian pellets. In addition, China encouraged mills to optimise burden costs by blending a higher proportion of pellets, with low-alumina Indian pellets remaining the preferred choice.
An international trader said “Chinese mills are increasingly shifting towards Indian pellets as higher lump premiums have made South African lump ore less viable. Low-alumina pellets continue to attract stronger buying interest.”
On the pricing front, sellers were largely offering cargoes at around $120/t CFR China, although negotiations were mostly concluded at $117-118/t CFR. The narrower bid-offer gap compared with previous weeks reflected improving buyer participation and supported additional transactions.
Domestic pellet demand continues to remain under pressure, making exports relatively more attractive for suppliers as export realisations are now at a higher end against the domestic market. We also expect a few producers to enter the market with fresh export shipment tenders during the second half of July. Meanwhile, the market is closely watching the outcome of today’s CMRG meeting, which could provide stronger fundamental support and set the tone for near-term trading.
Domestic vs export market
The pellet export realisations was recorded for Fe 63% were at INR 7,600-7,800/t ($80.5/t) gaining around INR 100-200/t ($1-2/t) this week while domestic realisations (Fe 62.5%) remained steady w-o-w at INR 7,500/t ($78.5/t) exw. Thus, the healthy gain of export realisation fueled the current price support.
Factors impacting pellet exports
Chinese iron ore fines prices rise w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines Fe 61% index increased by $2/t w-o-w to $100/dmt CFR China on 14 July. Trading remained thin, with transactions largely concentrated in mainstream medium-grade fines. Support originated from cooling-off observed in the coking coal segment, which gave some space for iron ore sellers to hike rates. Moreover, the uncertainity regarding restriction of certain mainstream-grade branded ores and hindrance in port-operations have overall contributed to the price inflation.
DCE iron ore futures strengthened w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the September 2026 contract settled at RMB 749.5/t ($112-113/t) on 15 July, up by RMB 22/t ($3/t) w-o-w.
Outlook
India’s pellet export market is expected to remain firm in the near term, supported by improving deal flow and export realisations that are broadly at par with the domestic market. Fresh export tenders in the second half of July and sustained demand for low-alumina pellets from Chinese mills could lend further support.
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