Indonesian thermal coal prices are falling persistently since the mid of Nov’16. While current FoB offers have fallen by 7-8% on weekly basis.
Indonesian coal offers have again witnessed a sharp correction by USD 3-4/MT, FoB compared to last week. Slow Chinese buying activities have hampered the Indonesian coal prices harshly since the mid of Nov’16. Also resulted a downtrend in the index for Indonesian coal forward trading.
At present Indonesian 4,200 GAR coal, highly preferred by Indian and Chinese utilities are offering at USD 39-40/MT, FoB for Dec’16 loadings. 3,800 GAR coal is being offered at USD 33-34/MT, FoB. While high CV 5,000 GAR is available for Dec’16 shipments at USD 60/MT, FoB Kalimantan.
Mentioned by an Indian importer, “In India, earlier there was decent buying of Indonesian grade coal but demonetization and volatile coal index is deterring buyers and traders to take position in the current market.”
Also added, “It is also expected that offers may stabilize during Chinese restocking before their New Year holidays”.
In India Dec’16 shipments of Indonesian coal is heard – 4200 GAR is offered at USD 47-48/MT, CFR Mangalore for Dec’16 loading. Low CV 3800 GAR is being offered at USD 41-42/MT, CFR and 5000 GAR is available at USD 68/MT, CFR at Kandla ports.
The bearish market outlook is constantly driving international coal prices down which resulted into falling coal stock and sale offers at Indian ports. It is also expected that coal stock prices will come down further.
•4200 GAR material is available at INR 4,300-4,400/MT at Mangalore and Kandla port (all duties and clearance included, VAT & CST will be added further).
•Indonesian 3800 GAR old material is offered by a trader at Kandla port for INR 3,700-3,600/MT. High CV Indonesian 5000 GAR are available at INR 5,500/MT at Mangalore port.
Indonesian coal production, export and domestic market obligation
Indonesia had a target to produce 419 MnT coal in 2016 and about 409 MnT in 2017, which was about 392 MnT in 2015.
Indonesia’s Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry reported a downfall of 14.5% Y-o-Y in coal production during 2015. The country marked about 425 MnT production target for the year. However, Indonesian coal miners curtailed production target by 20% in 2015.
Source: Indonesian Customs
Quantity in MnT
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