- Despite 20-25% crop decline, steady arrivals balance market
- Weak China demand, Middle East tensions limit price gains
India’s cumin (jeera) market is trading in a narrow range, as highlighted during a recent BigMint webinar, in which industry participants pointed to tightening supply fundamentals alongside demand-side uncertainty, keeping prices firm but range-bound.
The current season has been impacted by a delayed monsoon and extended rainfall during the sowing window across Gujarat and Rajasthan. Dinesh Bhai Patel, Chairman of APMC Unjha, noted that sowing has declined by 25-30% in Gujarat and 15-20% in Rajasthan, with overall production expected to fall nearly 20%. As a result, total output is estimated at around 8 million bags compared with nearly 10 million bags last year, tightening the supply outlook.
Despite this, mandi arrivals have remained relatively steady, particularly in Gujarat, where arrivals are fluctuating between 20,000 and 35,000 bags. Although arrivals remain slow, current market dynamics have led to a perception of comfortable supply given that demand remains subdued due to weak exports.
Ramsingh Chouhan, COO of Khetika, indicated that a sharp increase in arrivals is unlikely. He noted that supply flow will largely remain controlled, as larger farmers continue to hold stock and current arrivals are primarily from small farmers with immediate liquidity requirements.
Jigar Bhai, heading Ambalal Laludas, stated that farmers are unwilling to sell at current prices and are holding stock in anticipation of better realisations, while limited buying from traders has also contributed to subdued arrivals.
On the demand side, domestic consumption remains slow but steady, supported by consistent offtake from spice processors and wholesale markets. Additionally, pipeline stocks in major consumption centres such as Delhi and Mumbai were relatively low following last year’s volatility, which may support gradual restocking at current price levels.
However, export demand continues to act as a key limiting factor. Jigar Bhai highlighted that China’s demand has weakened due to higher domestic production, reducing import dependence. Given that China typically accounts for 30-40% of India’s cumin exports, this remains a significant bearish factor. At the same time, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are disrupting trade flows and increasing freight and insurance costs, creating uncertainty in Gulf markets that account for 10-15% of exports.
The panel indicated a clear near-term price range. The downside is seen supported near INR 19,500/quintal, aligned with farmer cost structures and selling resistance. On the upside, prices are expected to move towards INR 23,500-25,500/quintal in the coming months, with any further gains dependent on improvement in export demand.
From a trader perspective, the market presents a cautious setup. Stockists are expected to limit aggressive inventory build-up due to export uncertainty and past volatility, although current levels are seen as suitable for gradual stocking. Processors are likely to maintain steady procurement, while increased participation on futures exchanges is expected as market participants prefer hedging strategies over large physical exposure.
Overall, the jeera market is expected to remain firm in the near term, supported by tighter supply and farmer holding, while export uncertainty continues to cap sharp upside.
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