- Rising mandi inflows, weak exports trigger fresh selling
- Lower crop and farmer stockholding to support prices
Jeera futures on the NCDEX continued to trade under pressure, settling marginally lower at INR 22,145 per quintal, as the market absorbed a sharp increase in new crop arrivals across Gujarat mandis. Total arrivals were reported at ~85000 bags, with Unjha alone contributing over 52,000 bags, while Gondal saw ~4,000 bags of fresh inflows.
Physical markets reflected steady-to-weak sentiment, with Unjha prices trading in the range of INR 21,700-22,145/quintal, and broader Gujarat-Rajasthan trades reported between INR 19,000 and INR 23,500 depending on quality.
Despite the visible rise in arrivals, the downside in prices remains limited so far. Compared to last year, arrivals are still relatively lower, with Unjha currently seeing 35,000-40,000 bags against 50,000-55,000 bags in the same period last year. More importantly, farmers have turned selective sellers after the recent price correction, holding back stocks in anticipation of better prices. This has prevented a sharp supply glut in mandis and is absorbing selling pressure at lower levels.
Supply reduction
On the supply side, the overall crop outlook continues to remain structurally tight. Total production is estimated at 88-90 lakh bags, significantly lower than last year’s 97-98 lakh bags. Gujarat’s output is expected to drop sharply to 32-34 lakh bags from 44-45 lakh bags last year, while Rajasthan’s production is pegged at 54-55 lakh bags. This reduction in supply is the key underlying factor supporting the market and limiting any deep correction.
However, demand-side weakness is clearly visible. Export performance remains subdued, with shipments during April-December 2025 reported at 156,671 t, down 12% y-o-y. This weak export demand, coupled with comfortable carry-forward stocks, is keeping buyers cautious and limiting aggressive participation at higher levels.
From a positioning perspective, the market is witnessing fresh short build-up, with open interest rising by 2.85% to 6,825 even as prices edged lower. This indicates that traders are actively selling on rise, particularly near resistance levels. Technically, the market faces immediate resistance at INR 22,250, and failure to sustain above this level is likely to keep prices under pressure. On the downside, support is seen at INR 22,070, followed by a stronger base near INR 22,000-21,890.
The market structure remains slightly bearish as rising arrivals and weak exports continue to drive selling interest. Prices are likely to remain under pressure below INR 22,250, with downside potential toward INR 22,000-21,890. However, strong fundamental support from lower production and farmer holding is expected to absorb selling at lower levels. A decisive breakout above INR 22,250 can trigger short covering toward INR 22,360-22,430, while a break below INR 22,000 may accelerate fresh selling.
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