- Arrivals lag expectations, signalling tighter supply
- Strong buying and short covering lift futures
India’s coriander market is showing a clear structural shift, with prices strengthening across both spot mandis and NCDEX futures. Guna arrivals at around 6,000 bags and Baran at 2,000-2,500 bags remain below peak-season expectations, pushing spot prices up by around INR 100/quintal. NCDEX April futures have also moved higher to ~INR 11,498, gaining ~2.5%, supported by strong short covering and fresh buying. Premium quality material continues to trade up to ~INR 14,000/quintal, indicating that demand remains firm even at elevated levels.
The key change in the market is the emerging supply tightness. Despite active harvesting in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, arrivals are not scaling up as expected. This suggests that production may be lower than earlier estimates, or at least not comfortably high. The gap between expected arrivals and actual mandi inflow is now becoming the primary price driver. Farmers are also releasing stock gradually, reinforcing the tight supply perception in the market.
At the same time, stockist participation has increased, with buying seen at every dip. The rise in futures is not just technical but reflects market repositioning towards a tighter supply outlook. Auction prices and mandi trades confirm that buyers are actively absorbing available supply, preventing any price correction during the harvest phase.
The market is likely to remain firm-to-slightly bullish. If arrivals continue to stay below normal over the next few days, NCDEX could test the INR 11,800-12,200 range. However, any sharp increase in arrivals may temporarily cap the upside. Overall, the market is deviating from the typical harvest pressure trend and is moving into a supply-driven phase, which is a critical signal for traders and stockists.
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