- Fresh buying lifts NCDEX jeera futures, open interest rises 14%
- Lower Gujarat sowing, temperature stress tighten crop outlook
India’s jeera market has strengthened in recent sessions as crop concerns across key producing regions supported buying interest in futures. However, increasing new crop arrivals and comfortable stock levels may cap the upside in the near term.
From a technical perspective, NCDEX jeera futures witnessed fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 14.03% to 2,829 lots as prices gained momentum. The most active contract moved from around INR 21,740 on 2 March to about INR 22,185 on 5 March, reflecting steady buying support in the market. Technically, the contract is finding support near INR 21,760, with further downside seen around INR 21,340. On the upside, resistance is placed near INR 22,450, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward INR 22,720.
Lower acreage, rising temperatures tighten production outlook
The primary concern for the 2026 crop remains the decline in acreage in Gujarat, one of the country’s key cumin-producing states. Sowing in Gujarat is estimated at around 4.08 lakh hectares, down about 14.34% y-o-y compared with roughly 4.76 lakh hectares last season. Lower farmer participation following earlier price volatility and uncertain weather during the sowing window contributed to the reduction in planted area. Given Gujarat’s significant share in national production, the acreage decline has raised concerns over the final crop size.
Weather conditions during the crop development stage have also emerged as a key factor affecting yield prospects. Reports from cumin-growing belts indicate rising daytime temperatures in several producing districts, which could affect flowering and seed formation if the heat persists during the reproductive stage. Cumin performs best under cooler conditions, and sustained higher temperatures can accelerate crop maturity and reduce yield potential.
In Rajasthan, which accounts for a large share of national cumin output, crop conditions appear relatively stable overall, but localized aphid infestation has been reported in some growing pockets. Aphids are sap-sucking pests that weaken plants and may affect seed formation if infestations intensify during flowering.
Trade estimates suggest India’s 2026 cumin production may reach around 90-92 lakh bags, compared with about 1.10 crore bags in the previous season. Despite the expected decline, supply availability may remain comfortable as harvesting has begun in some regions and fresh arrivals are expected to increase steadily in major mandis during March and April.
At the same time, farmers continue to hold a portion of old-crop inventories. Market estimates suggest around 20 lakh bags remain with farmers, though only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded before the season closes, indicating that a sizeable quantity may carry forward into the next marketing year.
Export demand remains sluggish
Demand trends also continue to influence market sentiment. India’s cumin exports during April-December 2025 declined about 12% y-o-y to around 1.45 lakh tonnes, compared with about 1.65 lakh tonnes in the same period last year. Although buying interest from Gulf countries and China has shown some improvement, global buyers remain highly price-sensitive, limiting export momentum.
Geopolitical tensions in West Asia could also influence export logistics. While most cumin shipments to Asia and Europe do not pass directly through the Strait of Hormuz, rising freight costs and shipping risks in the region may indirectly affect spice trade flows and export costs if tensions escalate.
Overall, the jeera market is balancing tightening crop expectations with comfortable supply conditions. Lower sowing in Gujarat, rising temperatures, and pest risks in Rajasthan are supporting prices, but increasing arrivals, existing stock levels, and cautious export demand may keep prices range-bound in the near term.
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