India: Bulk HRC imports decline 10% y-o-y in Feb’26

• HRC imports shrink as landed costs remain higher post safeguard duty
• Export shipments decline m-o-m amid trade policy uncertainty

Bulk hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports into India in February 2026 amounted to 361,248 tonnes (t), marking a contraction of 10% from 401,621 t in February 2025, as per BigMint’s vessel line-up data. However, the same increased by 21% m-o-m compared to 299,673 t in January 2026.

The downtrend y-o-y reflects that the landed cost of imports remains higher than domestic prices due to the additional safeguard duty, widening the price gap and making domestically produced material preferable for market participants compared to costlier imports. However, imports jumped compared to January because buyers wanted to restock their supplies before the end of the financial year.

In February, South Korea, China and Japan continued to be the top three bulk HRC exporters to India, shipping 184,272 t, 83,562 t and 46,003 t respectively. Additionally, imports from South Korea fell by 10% y-o-y, and from Japan declined by 62%. However, Chinese shipments escalated by 133% in the same period compared to the previous year.

Domestic prices remain lower than imported equivalents, which range from INR 56,436/t ($616/t) from FTA countries and 56,986/t ($622/t) from non-FTA countries after duties and other landing costs. This gap continues to keep local material more attractive for Indian buyers as prices are around 54,500/t ($595/t) exy-Mumbai.

Export volumes climb y-o-y

India’s bulk HRC export volumes increased by around 34% y-o-y in February 2026 to 227,150 t compared to 169,104 t in February 2025.

However, export volumes declined by 20% m-o-m from 285,613 t shipped in January due to uncertainty regarding CBAM compliance and the pending EU trade agreement. Moreover, competitive Chinese prices in the Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian markets kept Indian mills away from aggressively exporting to these regions. Also, higher domestic realisation was also a key reason for lower export volumes.

Outlook

The outlook for India’s HRC trade is increasingly cautious due to escalating Iran-Israel-US tensions, which are driving up freight and insurance costs. This geopolitical uncertainty, combined with higher risk premiums, is expected to result in muted trade activities as both importers and exporters adopt a wait-and-watch approach. Moreover, the rising cost of international logistics and potential supply chain disruptions are likely to keep overall shipment volumes under pressure.