- LME volatility has eased, supporting trade sentiment
- Domestic premiums slightly softened w-o-w
Domestic aluminium prices in India increased w-o-w on 26 February, mirroring gains in aluminium futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), amid ongoing global supply concerns.
As per market assessment, domestic aluminium ingot prices in Delhi NCR increased by INR 4,000/t, or 1%, w-o-w to INR 313,000/t. Similarly, Mumbai prices rose by INR 3,000/t, or around 1%, w-o-w to INR 317,000/t as of 26 February 2026, compared to INR 314,000/t on 19 February 2026.
How did Indian and global exchanges perform?
Domestic aluminium futures on the MCX increased w-o-w by INR 1,650/t, or 1%, to INR 307,350/t, reflecting improved market sentiment.
In the global market, 3-month LME aluminium prices also rose by $80/t, or 3%, w-o-w to $3,141/t. Meanwhile, stocks at LME-registered warehouses declined by 6,000 t w-o-w, marking a 1.3% decrease.
LME aluminium prices rose w-o-w, supported by structural supply constraints and tightening global availability. China’s output remains near its 45 mnt production cap, while declining exchange inventories have reinforced bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, global aluminium demand is projected to grow to 106.8 mnt by 2026, driven by transportation, construction, packaging and electrical sectors, with EVs, renewables and infrastructure supporting long-term consumption growth.
Market insights
Aluminium P1020 ingot demand remains steady, with healthy buying activity in the domestic market. LME volatility has eased slightly, supporting improved trade sentiment.
Reflecting the firm market trend, NALCO increased its P1020 prices by INR 6,900/t to INR 323,000/t on 25 February from INR 316,100/t on 18 February.
During the week, BALCO raised prices by INR 5,250/t, while Hindalco increased prices by INR 5,000/t.
However, domestic premiums softened w-o-w to around $250-260/t over LME cash, as suppliers adjusted offers in line with relatively softer market conditions while seeking to protect overall realizations.
Additionally, Global aluminium producers are seeking Q2 2026 premiums of $220-$250/t from Japanese buyers, up 13-28% from Q1 levels. Japan sets the benchmark for Asian pricing. The proposed hike follows elevated premiums in the US and Europe and tight US inventories. However, Japanese buyers view the offers as high amid sluggish demand. Negotiations with major producers are ongoing.
Outlook
Aluminium P1020 prices in India are expected to remain muted in the near term due to steady demand, moderated premiums, and the upcoming Holi festival, while global premium negotiations and easing LME volatility may continue to influence market sentiment.
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