- TCUD projects 7% increase in steel production, consumption
- Import curbs, trade negotiations with EU boost steel outlook
SteelOrbis: Turkiye’s crude steel production rose by 3.3% y-o-y to 38.1 million tonne (mnt) in CY’25, according to a statement released by the Turkish Steel Producers’ Association (TCUD). Turkiye emerged as the world’s seventh-largest steelmaking country, and TCUD projects that CY’26 is likely to see production continue to grow to over 40 mnt.
According to the TCUD, 2025 was recorded as an extremely challenging period for the Turkish steel industry. Rising financing costs, together with global price pressure stemming from dumped and subsidised products, particularly from Russia, China and other Far Eastern countries, placed a heavy burden on producers’ costs. The intensifying export pressure in Russia, China and Far Eastern countries caused Turkiye’s steel imports to reach 18.9 mnt, the highest level in history.
The increase in imports of dumped and subsidised steel products also contributed to Turkiye’s foreign trade deficit rising by 11.9% to $92.9 billion in 2025. Meanwhile, although Turkey’s steel production capacity increased to 61.9 mnt in 2025, the sector’s capacity utilisation rate declined from 74.8% to 61.6%.
Moreover, the TCUD stated that the EU’s efforts to tighten import quotas increased pressure on the country’s steel exports. Additionally, with the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entering into force, 2026 will mark a period in which competition will increasingly be shaped by a sustainability approach covering the entire product life-cycle.
Within this framework, in 2026, the implementation of tonnage restrictions on steel imports, positive outcomes to be achieved in negotiations with the European Commission, and a decline in inflation and interest rates are expected to lead to an approximately 7% increase in steel production and consumption, with production exceeding 40 mnt.
Highlights of Turkiye’s steel market in CY’25
In FY’25, the semi-finished product exports amounted to 618,745 t, while semi-finished product imports amounted to 8.42 mnt
The value of steel exports increased by 2.1% to $898.87 million (mn), while the value of steel imports moved down by 16.6% to $1.03 billion in December 2025.
The value of steel exports increased by 4.3% to $10.16 billion, while the value of steel imports moved up by 0.7% to $13.08 billion in FY’25.
In FY’25, Turkey’s steel export-to-import ratio increased to 77.63%, from 73.91% recorded in 2024.
(Turkiye’s financial year is the same as the calendar year.)
Note: This article has been written in accordance with a content exchange agreement between SteelOrbis and BigMint.
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