China: Raw coal output rises marginally in 2025, sets record high

• Robust production in H1CY’25 leads to supply glut in market
• Strict anti-overproduction policies drag down output from Jul

Mysteel Global: China’s raw coal output in 2025 totalled 4.83 billion tonnes (bnt), up 1.2% from the 4.76 bnt in the previous year and setting a record high, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics on 19 January.

China’s raw coal production broadly presented a two-phase pattern in 2025 where in the first half of last year, robust production left the coal market in a stubborn supply glut, with prices of many coal types slumping to their lowest in years after persistent declines, as reported.

The oversupply, however, began to ease from July, when Beijing announced stringent punishments for coal mines exceeding their approved production capacities, as reported.

Beijing’s determination seemed to have persuaded domestic coal miners to make production cuts, as China’s monthly raw coal output declined y-o-y every month since July, the NBS numbers show.

This trend also extended into December, with production down 1% y-o-y to reach 437.03 million tonnes (mnt), according to the NBS data. Compared with November, the December volume was still higher by 2.4%, however.

Although the NBS did not provide explanations for the m-o-m change, Mysteel Global noted that stronger winter demand for coal — mainly thermal coal in the energy sector for household heating — may have boosted supplies of the fossil fuel last month.

According to the NBS, electricity generated by coal-fired power plants last month jumped 16.9% from November to 581.2 billion kilowatt-hours, the highest level since August.

This corresponded with Mysteel’s survey of 493 coal-fired utilities across the country, where the surveyed plants’ daily coal consumption averaged 4.3 mnt in December, up 6.7% from November and marking the highest monthly average since August.

Meanwhile, for full-year 2025, the country’s total production of all types of coke — including metallurgical coke for steelmaking — reached 504.12 mnt, up 2.9% from the previous year.

In December alone, coke output amounted to 42.74 mnt, up 2.5% m-o-m and 1.9% y-o-y, the NBS data showed.

Note: This article has been written in accordance with a content exchange agreement between Mysteel Global and BigMint.