- Nickel supply tightening lifts raw material cost pressures
- China’s export licensing may curb low-priced material flows
SteelDaily: Indonesia’s stainless steel export prices moved higher for the third week in December, led by Tsingshan Steel’s aggressive repricing of 304 hot-rolled (HR) products. The latest hike reflects mounting raw material cost pressures and improving external policy support, which together have strengthened exporters pricing power.
Tsingshan raises 304 HR export offers
Indonesia-based Tsingshan Steel has raised its export offer prices for 304-grade stainless steel HR coils by $30/tonne (t) in two tranches over the past week. With this increase, cumulative price hikes since early December now stand at $90/t, signalling a clear shift toward firmer export pricing.
Nickel supply risks lift cost pressures
The upward revision in offers is partly driven by tightening expectations around nickel supply. Indonesia is considering a sharp reduction of around 34% in nickel mining quotas under its 2026 RKAB (2026 Work Plan and Budget) framework compared with the 2025 target of 379 mnt. Additionally, from 2026, mining permit reviews will move to an annual cycle, strengthening government control over supply and potentially supporting higher nickel prices.
Weda Bay disruption adds to input costs
Further pressure stems from regulatory action at the Weda Bay Nickel project, a key upstream asset in which Tsingshan holds a majority stake. Indonesian authorities have confiscated mining land and imposed substantial fines over permitting issues, raising concerns over raw material availability and increasing operating costs for downstream stainless steel producers.
China’s export controls likely to reshape trade flows
China’s planned introduction of an export licensing system for steel products has also lent support to Indonesian pricing. Although the system does not impose direct volume caps, tighter procedures are expected to slow the flow of low-priced Chinese stainless steel into global markets, creating room for Indonesian suppliers to strengthen their market position.
Turkish anti-dumping probe supports Indonesian mills
Additional support comes from Turkiye’s recent anti-dumping investigation into cold-rolled stainless steel. While Chinese suppliers face provisional duties ranging from 5.45% to 13.47%, Indonesian material linked to Tsingshan has effectively been cleared with negligible dumping margins, translating into zero duties. This is expected to erode Chinese competitiveness and allow Indonesian exporters to gain further market share.
Outlook
Market participants noted that the latest export price hikes reflect a combination of rising cost pressures and strategic pricing decisions. With nickel supply risks, regulatory costs, and favourable trade developments aligning, Indonesian producers appear increasingly confident in defending higher stainless steel export prices in the global market.
Note: This article has been published in accordance with a content exchange agreement between SteelDaily and BigMint.
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