India grapples with rice stockpiles, prices to remain soft in short term

• Exports drop amid policy caps, global prices drop 35%
• OMSS seen as effective measure to ease warehouse congestion

India’s started the 2025-26 marketing year (MY) with high stock levels. January to October data available with BigMint shows that the average closing stocks figure was the highest in the first 10 months of this calendar at 366 lakh tonnes. The same 10 months last calendar showed an average of 300 lakh tonnes and 2023 was at 231 lakh tonnes and 2021, at 277 lakh tonnes.

Another interesting data reveals that estimated stocks with government agenices were very high in each of the months this calendar. These actually touched 38 million tonnes (mnt) around April-May 2025, then 37 mnt in July-September this year and 36 mnt in October, 2025. November showed these coming down to less than 34 mnt which indicates that the government has been able to offload some stocks in the last one month or so.

BigMint recently organised a webinar on “India’s Rice Stockpile Crisis: Navigating the 35 Million Tonne Policy and Price Dilemma”.

Key takeaways from this webinar highlighted the high stockpiles, challenging storage issues, declined exports and price trends:

• India’s rice production has climbed to nearly 150 million tonnes (mnt), up from around 118 mnt in 2019–20, driven by sustained minimum support price (MSP) hikes and uninterrupted government procurement.
• Total rice stocks stood close to 52 mnt at the start of the current marketing season, significantly above buffer norms, intensifying pressure on storage and logistics despite warehousing capacity of about 86 mnt.
• Exports have slowed sharply, declining from a record 22.35 mnt in 2022–23 to around 16-17 mnt following policy restrictions, limiting surplus absorption.
• India continues to command nearly 37% of the global rice trade, but weak import demand and aggressive pricing from competing origins have narrowed export opportunities.
• Global rice prices have corrected by nearly 35%, prompting major buyers such as Senegal, Indonesia, and the Philippines to slow or pause imports while liquidating domestic inventories.
• Africa remains subdued as a key demand centre, while increased competition from Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Myanmar has weighed on Indian export competitiveness.
• Domestic stock liquidation via OMSS is seen as the most effective near-term measure to ease warehouse congestion, reduce carrying costs, and support smoother procurement.

Outlook

Price outlook remains soft and range-bound into 2026, with limited upside unless driven by a major policy shift, weather disruptions, or supply-side shock.