- HRC prices witness marginal w-o-w rise
- Rebar prices edge down in off-season
China’s steel market saw a slight uptick this week. Domestic prices of hot-rolled coils (HRCs) rose marginally. Notably, raw material prices also displayed a mild correction w-o-w, with iron ore and coking coal prices rising marginally while billet remained firm.
1. Iron ore spot prices edge up marginally: Iron ore fines benchmark prices inched up by $1/dmt w-o-w to $105/dmt CFR China on 21 November. The slight lift stemmed from improved macro sentiment ahead of China’s Dec’25 Politburo meeting, raising hopes of supportive measures. Meanwhile, medium-grade differentials narrowed as the market stayed well supplied and spot buying remained light, while demand for high-grade material stayed muted with mills still struggling under weak margins.
Iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports were recorded at 139.62 mnt on 20 November, remaining stable w-o-w, as per data published by SteelHome.
a) Spot pellet premium steady: Spot pellet premium for Fe 65% grade pellet remained unchanged at $17.05/t CFR China on 19 November.
b) Spot lump premium dips: Spot lump premium dropped by $0.1/dmtu w-o-w to $0.0970/dmtu on 21 November, slipping below the $0.100 level.
2. Coking coal prices inch up: China’s met coke market held steady after recent hikes, supported by firm coking coal costs and cautious steel output, though suppliers see limited near-term upside amid subdued downstream demand.
Meanwhile, Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices increased by $4/t w-o-w to $199/t FOB, while BigMint’s PHCC index rose by $6/t w-o-w to $219/t CNF Paradip as of 21 November 2025, reflecting firm buying interest and tightened spot availability.
3. Chinese billet prices remain stable w-o-w: Chinese billet and rebar prices showed limited net movement; a market caught between tight supply and sluggish demand.
Steel billet prices in Tangshan, China, remained steady at RMB 2,950/t ($415/t) on 21 November, including VAT. Prices were supported by firm raw material costs and reduced hot-metal output, although weak winter demand and cautious mill sentiment limited any meaningful upside.
Meanwhile, SHFE rebar futures (Jan’26 delivery) rose marginally by RMB 4/t ($0/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,057/t ($430/t), with export prices easing $1-2/t amid competition.
4. Domestic HRC prices inch up marginally: China’s domestic HRC offers increased marginally w-o-w by RMB 10/t ($1/t) to RMB 3,070/t ($433/t) against RMB 3,060/t ($432/t), driven by slight uptick in SHFE futures. SHFE HRC futures (January 2026 contract) edged up slightly by RMB 22/t (3/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,273/t ($462/t) on 21 November against RMB 3251/t ($458/t) 14 November 2025
China’s HRC export offers remained firm w-o-w at $460/t FOB. Moreover, Chinese HRC export activity has remained weak this week, largely because of muted overseas demand.
5. Domestic rebar prices dip slightly: China’s rebar prices dropped marginally by RMB 20/t ($3/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,140/t ($443/t) from RMB 3,160/t ($446/t). However, SHFE rebar futures (January 2026 contract) edged up by RMB 13/t ($2/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,060/t ($432/t) on 21 November 2025 from 3,047/t ($430/t) on 14 November.
Rebar prices have fallen as the market enters the construction off-season, leading to reduced demand for rebar and other building materials.
China’s Shagang Steel continued to keep its long steel prices stable for end-November sales. Prices of rebars, coiled rebars and wire rods were as follows:
- Rebars (16-25 mm): RMB 3,450/t ($485/t)
- Coiled rebars (8-10 mm): RMB 3,560/t ($501/t)
- Wire rods (6-10 mm): RMB 3,470/t ($488/t)
Outlook
China steel prices may remain rangebound next week, supported by uptick in raw material costs but capped by seasonal demand slowdown. However, with no strong upside drivers, prices may fluctuate in a narrow range, while China’s export prices stay competitive and stable.
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