- Rebar prices edge up slightly w-o-w
- Market absorbs 3rd round of coke price hike
The Chinese steel market saw mixed trends this week. Domestic prices of hot-rolled coils (HRCs) held stable and rebars rose marginally. Notably, raw material prices also displayed a mild correction w-o-w, with iron ore and billet tags rising marginally and coking coal edging down.
The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) has reported that the total steel inventory at key Chinese enterprises in early November 2025 stood at 15.49 million tonnes (mnt), marking an increase of 860,000 t, or 5.9% from the previous period. However, inventory levels decreased by 390,000 t, or 2.5% compared with the same period last month. Y-o-y, stocks were higher by 1.83 mnt 13.4%, indicating continued supply pressure across the steel value chain.
China’s crude steel production in October stood at 72 mnt, down by 12.1% y-o-y as compared to 81.88 mnt in October 2024, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
1. Iron ore spot prices edge up marginally w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines spot prices surged slightly by $1/dmt to $104/dmt CFR China on 14 November. Prices remained mostly rangebound this week amid thin spot activity. Discounts for mid-grade fines narrowed slightly amid moderate trade, while supply was adequate. Demand for high-grade material weakened, as mills faced margin pressure. Prices of port stocks recovered modestly after recent declines.
Iron ore inventories at key Chinese ports were recorded at 139.15 mnt on 13 November, inching up by 1.15 mnt w-o-w, as per data published by SteelHome.
a) Spot pellet premium softens w-o-w: Spot pellet premium for Fe 65% grade pellet dipped by $1.7 to $17.05/t CFR China on 12 November.
b) Spot lump premium falls w-o-w: Spot lump premium dropped $0.1/dmtu w-o-w to $0.1120/dmtu on 14 November.
2. Coking coal prices edge down w-o-w: In China the third round of met coke price hike was fully implemented last week, yielding modest profits for some plants, though rising coal costs kept several at break-even or loss, while steelmakers continued active procurement.
Meanwhile, Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices eased by $2/t to $195/t FOB, while BigMint’s PHCC index for CNF Paradip rose $2/t w-o-w to $213/t as of 14 November, reflecting steady seaborne market fundamentals supported by sustained demand and stable trade flows.
3. Billet prices see marginal increase: Chinese billet prices edged up from RMB 2,940/t ($413/t) on 7 November to RMB 2,950/t ($416/t) on 14 November, a marginal RMB 10/t ($3/t) increase w-o-w.
SHFE Jan’26 rebar futures rose from RMB 3,030/t ($426/t) to RMB 3,053/t ($430/t), up RMB 23/t ($4/t) over the week. Despite this mild improvement the overall market stayed subdued, driven more by cost-side support than demand recovery.
Sentiment remained weak throughout the week as demand stayed sluggish, exports softened, and mills trimmed output amid high raw material inventories.
Early in the week, restocking interest was low with only brief speculative upticks, followed by mild price dips as coke prices fell and mill margins tightened. Midweek, liquidity improved slightly despite a stronger yuan, but buyers remained cautious with mills preparing for reduced stocking ahead of the Lunar New Year. Toward the end of the week, stronger iron ore and coke prices provided cost support, tightening billet availability and allowing a small price rebound, though overall steel market activity remained slow.
4. Domestic HRC prices hold stable w-o-w: China’s domestic HRC offers held stable w-o-w at RMB 3,060/t ($431/t), driven by stability in SHFE futures. SHFE HRC futures (January 2026 contract) held firm w-o-w to RMB 3,251/t ($458/t) on 14 November. Prices remained steady with demand remaining stable. Still, market participants voiced concerns that oversupply could soon put downward pressure on the market.
However, China’s HRC export offers edged down by $5/t w-o-w to $460/t FOB against $465/t a week ago.
Baosteel, the world’s leading steel manufacturer, has kept HRC prices stable for December sales. This marks the third consecutive month of unchanged pricing, driven by subdued domestic demand.
5. Domestic rebar prices rise w-o-w: China’s rebar prices were at RMB 2,950/t ($416/t), marginally up by RMB 10/t ($1/t) w-o-w from RMB 2,940/t ($415/t), following rise in SHFE futures. SHFE rebar futures (January 2026 contract) edged up by RMB 11/t ($2/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,047/t ($430/t) on 14 November 2025 from RMB 3,036/t ($428/t) on 7 November 2025. Muted supply and demand conditions prevented spot rebar prices from climbing significantly.
China’s Shagang Steel continued to keep its long steel prices stable for mid-Nov’25 sales. Prices of rebars, coiled rebars and wire rods were as follows:
- Rebars (16-25 mm): RMB 3,450/t ($484/t)
- Coiled rebars (8-10 mm): RMB 3,560/t ($500/t)
- Wire rods (6-10 mm): RMB 3,470/t ($487/t)
Outlook
Chinese steel prices may remain range-bound next week, supported by firm raw material costs but capped by weak demand and rising inventories. Slight fluctuations in HRC and rebar are likely, with sentiment staying cautious amid continued supply pressure.
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