China’s stainless steel market may witness flat Q4CY’25 amid tariff pressures, weak demand

• Q4 stainless prices steady amid weak demand, high supply
• US-China tariff tensions heighten export pressure on China

Stainless steel prices in China are expected to stay largely flat through the fourth quarter, as tariff concerns, high inventories, and sluggish demand continue to weigh on the market. Despite the traditional September-October peak season, prices weakened amid oversupply and lower-than-expected consumption. The escalating US-China trade dispute has added further downward pressure and uncertainty to the market.

In September, crude stainless steel output from 43 Chinese producers rose 3.4% m-o-m to 3.43 million tonnes (mnt), with the 200-series at 1.04 mnt (up 3.2%), 300-series at 1.76 mnt (up 1.4%), and 400-series at 625,000 tonnes (t) (up 9.6%). However, actual demand fell short as earlier inventory restocking in August-spurred by macroeconomic stimulus-reduced later purchases. Most buyers adopted a cautious “need-based” approach, limiting fresh orders.

For October, prices are expected to remain weak with demand recovery lagging and market sentiment subdued. Stainless steel output is forecast to edge up another 0.6% to 3.45 mnt, keeping supply pressures intact. On the raw materials side, nickel ore prices rose slightly amid Indonesian policy changes, but nickel pig iron prices softened as supply outpaced demand. Ferrochrome imports surged 40.7% m-o-m in September to 223,800 t, ensuring ample availability, while prices stabilized as mills froze November bids.

Meanwhile, escalating US-China tariff tensions-especially the planned 100% tariff on Chinese imports effective 1 November-pose fresh risks for Chinese stainless exports. While direct shipments to the US are limited, indirect routes via Southeast Asia are being curtailed, intensifying export challenges. There are expectations of only a brief uptick in export demand ahead of the new tariffs, with overall prices likely to remain steady but capped by Indonesia’s rising production and persistent high inventories.

Note: This article has been published in accordance with a content exchange agreement between SteelDaily and BigMint.