India: Iron ore fines prices in Karnataka remain stable w-o-w ahead of Diwali

• NMDC expected to reduce base prices for Nov’25 shipments
• Finished steel demand likely to pick up post-festive season

Domestic low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) prices in Karnataka’s Bellary region remained stable for yet another week, reflecting steady sentiment amid limited market movement. BigMint’s weekly index was assessed unchanged w-o-w at INR 3,150/tonne (t) ($35/t) ex-mines, excluding taxes. Similarly, Fe 62% fines were assessed at INR 5,250/t ($59/t) ex-mines Bellary, inclusive of taxes, also held firm w-o-w.

Market participants pointed to decent participation in e-auctions during the week, with trades concluded for both low- and high-grade ores, indicating moderate activity under balanced demand-supply conditions.

High-grade supply scenario

High-grade iron ore material continued to be available in the Bellary market. However, supply was limited, as only a few miners offered high-grade fines and lumps. Despite steady demand from sponge iron and pellet manufacturers, this restricted availability led to supply tightness, helping prices remain firm.

Market scenario

A Bellary-based miner noted, “Iron ore prices in Karnataka have remained largely stable for the past one to one-and-a-half months, primarily due to sluggish material movement caused by continuous rainfall across the region. Persistent rains disrupted logistics, reducing mine-site inventories, while most buyers, having already booked sufficient quantities earlier, were unable to lift additional material.”

He further added, “Currently, buyers are under pressure to move existing stocks, but transportation challenges continue to restrict movement. However, with weather conditions improving and no rainfall heard over the past few days, market activity is expected to gradually pick up in the coming days.”

A Bellary-based buyer shared a similar view, stating, “Finished steel demand is currently subdued, and market activity is expected to improve only after Chhath Puja, as most labourers are away for the festive season. Once they return, construction activity is likely to gain momentum, supporting a gradual recovery in demand.”

With the Odisha Mining Corporation (OMC) having recently reduced its base prices, market participants are waiting for the November price revision from NMDC, which may also see downward movements. This expectation, coupled with improving weather conditions and post-festive demand recovery, is likely to influence market activity in the near term.

Rationale

• Two (2) trades via e-auction were recorded for Fe 57% in this publishing window but were not taken into consideration. Hence, the T1 trade category was accorded 0% weightage.
• Thirteen (13) offers and indicative prices were reported, out of which twelve (12) were considered as T2 trades. These were accorded 100% weightage.

Key market drivers

• NMDC’s auction receives good response: NMDC’s recent iron ore auctions from its Donimalai and Kumaraswamy mines received a fairly positive response. On 14 October, the Donimalai mine auction saw full bookings, with 32,000-t lumps (10-40 mm, Fe 54%) and 8,000-t fines (Fe 56%) booked at base prices of INR 2,738/t and INR 2,989/t. Similarly, the 15 October auction from the Kumaraswamy mines recorded sales of 70,000-t lumps (10-40 mm, Fe 59.63-60.60%) booked at INR 4,981-5,362/t against base prices of INR 4,381-4,662/t and 80,000-t fines (Fe 58.31-63.34%) booked at INR 3,399-5,630/t. All prices are on an ex-mines basis and include royalty, DMF, and NMET.
• C-DRI prices fall w-o-w in Bellary: Prices of sponge iron (CDRI) in Bellary fell by INR 600/t ($7/t) w-o-w to INR 25,300/t ($288/t). The market remained subdued and sentiment was weak, with trading activity confined largely to need-based procurement within a narrow price range. Sellers were seen offering minor discounts to stimulate buying interest; however, overall response from buyers remained limited, weighed down by muted demand across semi-finished and finished steel segments.

Karnataka iron ore sales scenario (10-16 October 2025)

Outlook

Low-grade iron ore prices in Bellary are expected to remain largely stable during the Diwali week due to muted trading activity as buyers and labourers take festive leave. High-grade supply tightness will continue to support firm prices, while low-grade fines are likely to see minimal movement.