China: Steel inventories at CISA mills drop 4.1% in late-Sep’25

• Steel inventories fall; daily crude steel output dips
• Market weak; overseas demand remains subdued

The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) reported that total steel inventories at key member mills stood at 14.67 million tonnes (mnt) in late September 2025, down by 0.62 mnt or 4.1% from 15.29 mnt recorded in mid-September. Compared with the same period last month, inventories declined by 0.31 mnt or 2.1%, while rising by 0.39 mnt or 2.7% y-o-y against 14.28 mnt last year.

Production trends

Daily crude steel output at major mills averaged 1.889 mnt in late September, marking a sharp 8.9% decline from 2.073 mnt in mid-September and a 6.2% drop y-o-y.

Daily pig iron output averaged 1.817 mnt, falling 4.9% against mid September  and 1.8% y-on-y.

In contrast, finished steel output increased to 2.142 mnt, up 4.0% month-on-month (m-o-m) and 0.2% y-o-y, suggesting steady downstream production despite weaker crude steel activity.

Market outlook

The Chinese steel market is stable but slightly weak, with prices largely unchanged from pre-holiday levels. Overseas sentiment is subdued after the U.S. imposed a 25% truck tariff and the EU cut steel import quotas by 50% with a 50% duty. Rebar demand is easing as the construction peak season ends, while HRC demand from manufacturing remains limited. Overall, the near-term outlook is soft, with cautious restocking likely keeping prices under pressure.