India: South African portside coal prices remain steady on active trades

• Stronger post-holiday demand supports stability
• Nov outlook firm amid supply concerns

South African portside coal offers in India remained stable this week, with RB2 assessed at INR 8,200/t and RB3 at INR 7,100/t across Paradip, Vizag, and Gangavaram. October delivery prices held firm, supported by steady post-holiday demand. Market participants anticipate a mild uptrend in November offers amid short-term supply concerns following a crane fire at South Africa’s Richards Bay terminal.

Improved port activity, firm trades

BigMint understands that trading activity picked up this week, with nearly 100,000 tonnes of portside trades reported during the period. Two notable trades were recorded in eastern India-20,000 t of RB2 at INR 8,150/t and another 20,000 t at INR 8,200/t ex-works. Portside inventories increased by 3% to 12.22 mnt in week 40 from 11.86 mnt in week 39, supported by improved arrivals and smoother logistics following GST implementation.

Domestic coal market stable but slow

Domestic coal prices stayed largely steady, with 5,000 GCV at INR 6,250/t ex-Bilaspur and 4,500 GCV easing slightly by INR 100/t to INR 5,200/t. Traders stayed cautious as SECL’s grade upgradation policy delayed delivery orders and reduced lifting volumes. Limited availability and slower offtake signalled early signs of supply tightness in the domestic market.

Export and freight updates

Export offers from RBCT increased slightly by $1-2/t, with RB2 at $71/t FOB and RB3 at $60/t FOB amid mild demand recovery post-GST reform. South Africa-India Panamax freight rates softened by $1.3/t week-on-week to $14.72/t.

Sponge iron market weakens further

BigMint’s C-DRI index (ex-Rourkela) dropped INR 350/t to INR 25,250/t amid muted finished steel demand and weak buyer response. Sellers reduced offers to stimulate demand, but regional divergence persisted, with eastern and central India showing relative resilience while southern markets faced sustained pressure.

Outlook

South African portside coal prices are expected to remain range-bound in the near term, with possible upward movement if RBCT loading delays persist or vessel availability tightens.