- Ramp-up of new mines drives global copper mine output
- Refined copper surplus projected for 2025, deficit in 2026
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) convened in Lisbon, Portugal, on 7 October 2025, with government delegates and industry advisors from major copper-producing and consuming countries. During the Statistical Committee meeting, the ICSG presented its outlook on the world balance of refined copper production and usage, highlighting key trends and projections for 2025 and 2026.
Global refined copper output forecast for 2025-26
World refined copper production is forecast to rise about 3.4% in 2025, supported by Chinese capacity expansions; new projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), India, and Indonesia; and improved operating rates in Zambia.
Primary refined output from concentrates and solvent extraction and electrowinning (SX-EW) is expected to increase 3%, while secondary production from scrap is projected to grow 4.5%.
In 2026, growth is projected to moderate to 0.9%, as limited concentrate availability constrains primary electrolytic output, though SX-EW and secondary refined production are expected to rise 2.2% and 6%, respectively, aided by new and expanded capacity across multiple countries.
Refined copper surplus in 2025, deficit in 2026
World refined copper market projections indicate a surplus of around 178,000 tonnes (t) in 2025, declining from earlier forecasts, while a deficit of approximately 150,000 t is expected in 2026 due to constrained refined copper production, caused by the limited availability of copper concentrate.
ICSG notes that global market balances can vary from projections because of unforeseen developments, and apparent demand calculations for China exclude unreported stocks, which can significantly impact supply-demand assessments. Combined copper stocks at major exchanges (LME, COMEX, and SHFE) rose 14.7% to 493,610 t by the end of July 2025.
Global copper mine production to rise moderately in 2025-26
World copper mine production is projected to rise by 1.4% in 2025, with stronger growth of 2.3% expected in 2026. The 2025 growth forecast has been revised down from an earlier estimate of 2.3% due to major disruptions at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and the Kamoa mine in the DRC.
Production gains in 2025 are largely driven by the ramp-up of the Kamoa mine (pre-incident), expansion of the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia, and the start-up of the new Malmyz mine in Russia. In 2026, growth is expected to accelerate on the back of continued capacity ramp-ups, recovery of operational rates in Indonesia, and improved output from Chile, Peru, and Zambia.
Smaller expansions and the commissioning of several small- to medium-sized mines across the DRC, Brazil, Iran, Ecuador, Eritrea, Greece, Angola, and Morocco will also contribute to the global increase, supporting the steady growth of worldwide copper mine production over the two-year period.
Copper prices
The average LME cash price for August 2025 was $9,646/t, slightly down from July, with the year-to-date average at $9,538/t, up 4.3% versus 2024, reflecting market adjustments amid shifting production and stock levels.
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