India: BigMint’s coking coal index remains range-bound as market awaits fresh round of deals

• Indian met coke prices hold steady, BF rebar tags drop
• Indian mills likely to increase bookings in coming weeks

BigMint’s premium hard coking coal (PHCC) index was assessed at $208/tonne (t) CNF Paradip, India, on 27 September 2025, down by $1/t against the previous assessment on 20 September.

No fresh bookings were heard this week for India; however, the market expects inquiries and bookings to pick up in the coming days, given the expected recovery in steel demand during Q3FY’26.

On the global front, as per Japan Metal Daily, Australian coking coal prices rebounded to around $190/t FOB, supported by high Chinese domestic coal tags and supply concerns in Queensland, including BMA’s planned Saraji mine shutdown. While Chinese pig iron output stays firm, Asian steel demand outside China remained weak. India’s post-monsoon buying could provide the next demand push, though overall price momentum remains uncertain.

Rationale

BigMint’s coking coal index is derived using data points, i.e., trades, offers, bids, and indicative prices.

No deal was heard concluded. Hence, it was considered for index computation and given a weightage of 0%.

Nine (9) firm offers, bids, and indicative prices were heard. Out of these, seven (7) were considered for price calculation and given 100% weightage.

BigMint has consolidated its Prime Hard Coking Coal (PHCC) CFR India Index to include material of all origins, including US, Canada, Mozambique, Australia – normalised for quality and freight. With India steadily reducing its reliance on Australian PHCC and increasing imports from alternative sources, this update ensures the index accurately reflects evolving market dynamics and trade flows.

Factors impacting imported coking coal prices

1. Indian met coke prices remain stable w-o-w: The Indian metallurgical coke (met coke) market stayed largely stable during the week ending 25 September 2025. Prices of BF-grade (25-90 mm) met coke were assessed at INR 29,500/t ex-Jajpur in eastern India and INR 30,000/t ex-Gandhidham in western India. Meanwhile, foundry-grade met coke in Rajkot held firm at INR 35,600/t. Market participants described the tone as steady, with no sharp price shifts due to caution regarding supply stability.

2. China’s met coke market remains largely range-bound: China’s met coke market remained steady even as coal costs climbed up. Producers attempted modest price hikes of RMB 30-50/t ($4-7/t), though steel mills largely resisted. Prices stabilised at RMB 1,240/t ($174/t) in Luliang, RMB 1,440/t ($202/t) in Tangshan, and RMB 1,430/t ($200.7/t) in Rizhao. Robust steel output ahead of the holiday period continued to underpin demand.

3. Indian BF-rebar trade prices drop w-o-w: India’s trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices dropped w-o-w across major markets. The major primary mills either increased their discounts or reduced list prices due to subdued market sentiment. Buying was impacted due to heavy monsoons and a festive season lull seen across major domestic markets. Trade-level BF rebar prices edged down by INR 200/t ($2/t) w-o-w to INR 46,800/t ($528/t) exy-Mumbai, as per BigMint’s assessment on 26 September 2025. Prices are exclusive of GST at 18%.