- Several ready-to-load cargoes sold at a premium
- Discounts for Fe 57% remain stable at 18-18.5%
Indian iron ore fines export prices remained firm this week, supported by healthy buying interest from Chinese mills and consistent inquiries for blending cargoes. Market participants indicated active trading, with several ready-to-load cargoes sold at a premium.
Prices, deals
BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index rose by $1/tonne (t) w-o-w to $68.5/t FOB east coast on 25 September.
BigMint recorded export deals for nearly 460,000 t of fines during the recent trading sessions. Cargoes for Fe 56-57% fines were finalised in the range of $78-81/t CFR China.
Discounts for Indian-origin Fe 57% fines were stable, at around 18-18.5% in the overseas market, and deals were largely concluded in the same range. Some Fe 54-55% fines export deals were also heard concluded from the east coast, for ready-to-load cargo.
Market scenario
An eastern India-based exporter stated, “Demand from China is quite decent, especially for low- to mid-grade cargoes. Mills are actively blending Indian material, which is keeping prices on the higher side.”
The firm pricing comes despite heightened speculation about the possible imposition of an export duty on lower-grade fines by the Indian government. Although no official confirmation has been provided, the uncertainty has triggered panic selling in the overseas market.
An international trader noted, “Speculation regarding the export duty is creating nervousness. Some exporters rushed into deals at slightly discounted levels just to clear their positions.”
Meanwhile, supply constraints have also emerged as a supporting factor for prices. With the prolonged monsoon hampering mining activities, miners are reportedly struggling to maintain adequate output.
Another market participant said, “Iron ore production has slowed due to heavy rains, and we are not getting enough material to cover our full shipment commitments.”
Despite these challenges, overall sentiment in the market remained positive. Participants expect pricing to stay supported in the near term, as demand from Chinese buyers persists. An exporter added, “With Chinese mills showing sustained interest and blending demand picking up, a few more deals are likely to be completed in the coming days.”
Chinese spot prices up w-o-w: Benchmark iron ore fines prices in China increased by $1/t w-o-w to $107/t CFR on 24 September. Market support came from stronger demand for medium-grade fines, with a shift in preference from high-low blends. Steel mills, preparing for Golden Week, showed higher spot buying interest for restocking, which kept trading activity firm. Portside price recovery added support, though landing margins remained under pressure.
DCE iron ore futures inch up w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the January 2026 contract opened at RMB 805.5/t ($113/t) on 25 September, up a minor RMB 5/t ($1/t) w-o-w.
Rationale
- Two (2) deals for Fe 57% were recorded during this publishing window and one was taken for price calculation. Therefore, T1 trade was given 50% weightage in the index calculation. A few deals were already factored into Monday’s assessment. For the detailed methodology, click here.
- BigMint received twenty-seven (27) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and twenty-two (22) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given 50% weightage.
Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports rose by 0.38 mnt w-o-w to 132.45 mnt on 25 September, as per SteelHome data.
Outlook
BigMint’s analysis suggests that speculation regarding the potential export duty may cause some volatility; however, strong demand from China and tight supply are expected to keep Indian iron ore export prices firm in the short term.
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