India: HRC export offers remain stable w-o-w amid weak domestic demand

• CBAM-related uncertainty keeps EU demand muted
• HRC offers to the Middle East stay flat w-o-w

BigMint’s India hot-rolled coil (HRC, S275 for Europe) export index remained stable w-o-w at $545/tonne (t) (FOB main port) amid weak domestic demand. The European HRC market stayed subdued due to weak demand from end-users and ongoing uncertainty surrounding forthcoming regulatory changes, keeping market activity quiet.

Indian HRC (HRC, SAE1006 for Middle East) export index remained unchanged w-o-w at $500/t FOB main port. With a slow market and year-end approaching, customers are holding back on inventory, sources informed.

Confusing Chinese prices and weak demand are leading to aggressive negotiations for the lowest prices, as per sources.

1. HRC export offers to EU stable w-o-w: Indian HRC export offers to the EU remained stable w-o-w at $595-600/t CFR Antwerp ($545-550/t FOB India), this stability in prices can be attributed to low trading activity, with buyers hesitant to restock due to unclear guidelines on CBAM benchmarks and safeguard measures, leading to a wait-and-see approach in the market.
The European HRC market stayed subdued due to weak demand from end-users and ongoing uncertainty surrounding forthcoming regulatory changes.

2. HRC export offers to ME unchanged w-o-w: China’s HRC export prices to the Middle East remained unchanged at $505-510/t CFR UAE due to slow domestic demand. A source said, “Rising raw material prices is a factor weighing on regional demand”. Moreover, Indian HRC export offers to the Middle East stayed flat at $525/t CFR UAE.

HRC futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) January 2026 contract fell by RMB 54/t ($8/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,349/t ($470/t) as compared to RMB 3,403/t ($478/t) a week ago. Moreover, on a d-o-d basis, contracts decreased by RMB 36/t ($5/t) against RMB 3385/t (475/t).

Outlook

The short-term outlook for the HRC market remains range-bound, with prices likely to remain stable amid weak demand and regulatory ambiguity. Indian export prices to the EU and Middle East are expected to hold steady, while European prices may see some short-term stability, though market challenges are likely to persist.