Copper prices remain rangebound w-o-w at around $10,000/t

• 3M LME contract up $100/t w-o-w
• China’s copper production drops 4-5% m-o-m in Sep

The benchmark three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) closed at $10,050/tonne (t) on 12 September 2025, up by $100/t compared with 5 September.

On 12 September, stocks stood at about 153,950 tonnes (t). By 19 September, inventories had fallen to approximately 147,650 t, signifying a drop of roughly 6,300 t over the intervening week.

First, the dip comes after a sharp rise in early September when copper prices breached the $10,000 mark amid tightening global supply concerns, notably from key producers facing operational disruptions and labour strikes.

On 16 September, Anglo American and Chile’s state copper producer Codelco finalized a $5 billion agreement to jointly operate the Andina and Los Bronces copper mines. The plan is to unlock ~2.7 million tonnes of additional copper production over 21 years (subject to permits by ~2030). This has raised expectations for future supply, easing some of the recent supply-tightness concerns.

China, responsible for nearly 45% of global refined copper output, reportedly saw a 4-5% drop in copper production in September compared to August. Also, Chinese refiners are exporting more copper to Southeast Asia, presumably to avoid tariff exposure and excess domestic inventory pressures.

China reportedly saw about a 5% decline in refined copper output in early September, reducing global supply by some 500,000 t. This drop intensified pressure on physical copper availability, especially since China is a major consumer and producer.

The US has rejected India’s request at the WTO for consultations on Washingtons 50% tariffs on copper and copper derivative products. India argued the duties hurt its exporters by making their shipments uncompetitive in the American market. This is the third such refusal after similar cases on steel, aluminium, and autos. The tariffs, imposed on 1 August under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, were justified by the US on national security grounds.

Outlook

Citigroup has projected that copper prices could break through the $12,000/t mark by 2026, driven by tightening supply and a recovery in global manufacturing alongside a weaker US dollar. In its latest quarterly commodity outlook, Citi noted that while copper demand may face short-term resistance, structural deficits will emerge as mine supply lags, creating upside potential. The bank expects prices to average around $10,000/t in Q4 2025, close to current levels, before gaining momentum next year.