- Imports costlier than domestic supply
- Policy measures support domestic market
India’s imported hot-rolled coil (HRC) offers from China stood at around $510/t CFR India, while those from Japan stood at $505/t CFR India as on 9 September 2025.
Furthermore, 12% safeguard is added on imports of specific non-alloy and alloy steel flat products. The additional duty is added if the prices are below threshold price. Moreover, for HRC imports, this threshold is set at $675/t CIF.
Domestic HRC prices
BigMint’s benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRC (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL) held stable w-o-w to INR 49,500/t ($562/t) on 9 September 2025. These prices are ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.
Moreover, leading Indian steel manufacturers have officially raised the list prices of hot-rolled coils (HRCs) and cold-rolled coils (CRCs) by INR 750-1,000/tonne (t) ($9-11/t) for September 2025 sales as compared to the net sales price of end-August 2025.
However, m-o-m, trade-level prices of HRCs rose by INR 500/t ($6/t) to INR 49,900/t ($566/t) in August against INR 49,400/t ($560/t) a month ago. On the other hand, CRC prices increased by INR 600/t ($7/t) to INR 56,900/t ($646/t) in August against INR 56,300/t ($639/t) in July.
Price gap analysis
The import price scenario for HRC into India from China and Japan involves several cost components. The base prices are $510/t CFR for China and $505/t CFR for Japan. For Chinese imports, a 7.5% Basic Customs Duty (BCD) and a 0.75% cess (10% of BCD) are applied, taking the effective cost to $552/t, while Japanese imports attract no BCD under FTA, so the cost remains $505/t. At a conversion rate of INR 88/USD, these values translate to INR 48,653 /t for China and INR 44,536/t for Japan.
However, as both these figures are below the threshold import price of $675/t, a safeguard duty of 12% and an additional cess of 1.2% (10% of safeguard duty) are levied, amounting to an additional duty of $73/t for China and $67/t for Japan (i.e., 13.2% of the respective import value).
This brings the post-duty cost to $625/t for China and $572/t for Japan, or INR 55,088 and INR 50,445 respectively. Adding INR 2,000/t for port handling and miscellaneous charges, the final landed cost comes to INR 57,088/t for Chinese HRC and INR 52,445/t for Japanese HRC.
When compared with the domestic HRC price of INR 49,500/t (ex-Mumbai, excluding GST), Japanese imports are marginally costlier, while Chinese imports are notably more expensive.
Bulk HRC imports
India’s bulk hot-rolled coils (HRC) imports in August totalled 394,083 tonnes (t), a decline of 37% from 624,179 t in August 2024, according to BigMint data. Moreover, imports dropped by 19% against 484,879 t in July.
In August, South Korea, China, and Japan emerged as India’s top three bulk HRC exporters, shipping 134,503 t, 102,957 t, and 78,864 t, respectively. Additionally, imports from South Korea fell by 26% y-o-y, and shipments from Japan and China dropped by 28% over the same period.
Outlook
The Indian HRC market is likely to stay steady in the near term as recent measures such as safeguard duty and anti-dumping duties are expected to keep imports expensive, thereby supporting domestic HRC prices and strengthening the local market.
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