- Global iron ore prices rise $5/t w-o-w amid improved demand
- Decent domestic realisation giving better options to sellers
India’s pellet export market witnessed a sharp rise this week, supported by firm global prices and positive macroeconomic cues from China. Market participants reported that the bid-offer gap has narrowed, though a mismatch continues to limit active trade.
Price update
BigMint’s India pellet (Fe 63%, 3-3.5% Al) export index (FOB east coast) climbed up by $6/t w-o-w to $103/t on 10 September 2025 against 3 September. Pellet export prices reached their highest level in over six months since the last peak seen at the end of February.
Suppliers in the east coast are holding their offers above $125/t CFR China, while buyers’ bids largely hovered at $115-116/t CFR China. Deals from east coast India region amid bid-offer gap and better domestic realisations.
Market updates
A market participant mentioned, “Sellers are unwilling to compromise on margins, given that domestic realisations are currently far more attractive.”
In the domestic market, pellet deals in Odisha were concluded at INR 8,500-9,000/t ($95-102/t) ex-plant, offering producers better returns than exports. An international trader added, “At current levels, selling domestically ensures higher profitability compared to exports, where buyers are still resisting higher offers.”
On the other hand, a west India-based plant managed to conclude a few low-alumina export cargoes at $120-125/t CFR for November shipments. Sources noted that while these deals reflect improved sentiments, such prices remain difficult to achieve from the east coast due to prevailing bid resistance.
Another market player informed, “Global support is strong, but unless Chinese buyers step up to meet Indian suppliers’ offers, the east coast export market may remain subdued.”
Iron ore prices have surged past $107/t, reaching a six-and-a-half-month high due to the resumption of operations at Chinese steel mills following a military parade. This renewed activity in the steel sector is driving the price increase.
Domestic vs export realisations gap
Domestic prices exceeded export offers by around INR 1,300/t ($15/t), narrowed by INR 450/t w-o-w. Pellet (Fe 63%) prices in Odisha’s Barbil were recorded at INR 8,350/t ($95/t) exw, remaining stable w-o-w. Meanwhile, the ex-plant realisations in exports from Barbil were at INR 7,050/t ($80/t) exw, rising INR 450/t w-o-w.
Rationale
- No confirmed deals from India’s east coast were recorded in this publishing window for T1 trade. Thus, this category was not taken into consideration for today’s price calculations and accorded 0% weightage in the index calculation. Click here for the detailed methodology.
- Ten (10) indicative prices were received, and nine (9) were considered for the calculation of the index and given 100% weightage.
Factors impacting pellet exports
Chinese iron ore fines prices climb w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines index rose by $5/t w-o-w at $108/t CFR China on 9 September. Prices were supported by stronger buying interest for October cargoes. Mills, which faced pressure from thin margins, opted for discounted, high-impurity cargoes, lifting demand for non-mainstream supplies. Portside prices rose on stronger sentiment and hopes of higher molten iron output post-sintering cuts, and markets were supported by speculative restocking.
DCE iron ore futures rise w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the January 2026 contract opened at RMB 805/t ($113/t) on 10 September, an uptrend of RMB 28/t ($4/t) w-o-w.
Outlook
BigMint’s analysis indicates that pellet prices are expected to remain rangebound in the near term. While a firm domestic market continues to anchor supplier sentiment, export opportunities could remain selective until the bid-offer mismatch eases further.
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