- Billets, HRC prices rise, but rebar holds steady
- Inventories at mills down 5% from mid-Jun levels
The Chinese steel market saw uptrends in prices this week. Domestic steel prices, including billets and hot-rolled coils (HRCs), rose w-o-w. However, rebar held stable compared to last week. While raw material prices such as iron ore and coking coal prices increased w-o-w.
The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) has announced that the total steel inventory at key Chinese enterprises in late-June 2025 stood at 15.45 million tonnes (mnt), down by 760,000 tonnes (t) or 4.7% as compared to 16.21 mnt in mid-June 2025.
1. Iron ore spot prices rise w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines spot prices inched up $2/t w-o-w to $96/t CFR China on 4 July amid fresh bookings. Prices received a boost from fresh bookings, improved futures sentiment, and positive policy cues, with low port-side inventories expected to sustain near-term buying interest.
Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports were stable w-o-w at 133.6 mnt on 3 July, as per data published by SteelHome
a) Spot pellet premium steady w-o-w: Spot pellet premium for Fe 65% grade pellet held stable w-o-w at $14.10/t CFR China on 2 July.
b) Spot lump premium edges up w-o-w: Spot lump premium rose marginally by 0.007/t to $0.1660/dmtu on 4 July.
2. Coking coal prices inched up w-o-w: Australian PHCC prices inched up w-o-w to $182/t FOB due to improvement in demand. BigMint’s premium hard coking coal (PHCC) index was assessed at $196/tonne (t) CNF Paradip, India, on 4 July 2025, up by $9/t against the previous assessment on 27 June. Recent deals from Australia seem to have pushed offers up. However, continuity of high prices remains a question.
3. Chinese billet prices inched up by RMB 30/t ($4/t) w-o-w: Steel billet prices in Tangshan, China, surged by RMB 30/t ($4/t) w-o-w to RMB 2,940/t ($410/t), including 13% VAT, on 4 July 2025. Billet prices showed strength boosted by positive macro-economic news, production curbs limiting the supply, following demand in the finished segment. Meanwhile, SHFE rebar futures (October 2025 delivery) rose w-o-w by RMB 77/t ($11/t) to RMB 3,072/t ($429/t) on 4 July 2025.
4. Domestic HRC prices edge up w-o-w: China’s HRC offers edged up by RMB 10/t ($1/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,080/t ($430/t) against RMB 3,070/t ($428/t) following the increase in SHFE futures.
SHFE HRC futures surged by RMB 92/t ($13/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,211/t ($448/t) on 4 July against RMB 3119/t ($435/t) on 27 June.
China’s HRC prices edged slightly higher on anticipated supply cuts in export markets, yet cautious sentiment prevails amid weak end-user demand. Meanwhile, Chinese HRC export offers remained stable w-o-w at $445/t as demand remained slow.
5. Domestic rebar prices stay firm w-o-w: China’s rebar stayed firm w-o-w at RMB 3,140/t ($438/t). SHFE rebar futures (October 2025 contract) stood at RMB 3,082/t ($430/t) on 4 July, climbing up by RMB 92/t ($13/t) as compared to RMB 2,990 /t ($417/t) on 27 June.
China’s Shagang Steel has kept its long steel prices for early-July sales unchanged, as per sources. Prices of rebars, coiled rebars, and wire rods are as follows:
- Rebars (16-25 mm): RMB 3,250/t ($454/t)
- Coiled rebars (8-10 mm): RMB 3,410/t ($476/t)
- Wire rods (6-10 mm): RMB 3,320/t ($463/t)
Outlook
Chinese steel prices may witness mixed trends in the near term, backed by SHFE futures gains and rising raw material costs. However, weak end-user demand and shifting inventories could keep market sentiment cautious.
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