India: BF rebar trade prices decline by INR 1,200/t ($14/t) in subdued market

• Bid-offer gaps lead to need-based BF rebar purchases
• Inquiries for IF rebars improve but bookings stay low

India’s trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices declined w-o-w, weighed down by subdued domestic demand and slowing market activity due to the onset of the monsoon. Market sentiment remained cautious, with buyers refraining from bulk purchases amid persistent bid-offer gaps, while distributors aimed to offload previously procured high-cost inventories.

Major primary steel producers reduced rebar prices amid lacklustre trade, with list prices ranging between INR 50,500-51,500/tonne (t) ($591-602/t) on landed basis.

Trade-level BF rebar prices declined by INR 1,200/t ($14/t) w-o-w to INR 50,700/t ($593/t) exy-Mumbai, as per BigMint’s assessment on 27 June 2025. Prices are exclusive of GST at 18%.

Buying activities in the project segment remained subdued, with limited orders being placed amid ongoing concerns over further downward price corrections. Prices hovered at around INR 49,500-50,000/t ($579-591/t) on a landed basis. Mills continued to face challenges in securing bookings due to stiff market competition.

Update on projects

KEC International Ltd secured civil contracts worth INR 1,236 crore in India. The orders include high-rise residential projects in western India from leading real estate developers, covering the development of over 50 lakh sq. ft. of residential space with related infrastructure.

Factors behind market dynamics

1. IF rebar prices range-bound w-o-w: IF rebar trade prices remained largely range-bound this week, with a marginal increase in some markets amid improved inquiries. However, order bookings remained subdued despite trade discounts, as buyers continued need-based procurement. Inventory levels stayed elevated at 12-15 days, keeping market sentiment weak. Given the monsoon-led slowdown, some market participants believe that mills may consider production cuts. Additionally, prices are expected to remain under pressure in the near term, having likely bottomed out. IF rebar prices dropped by INR 200/t ($2/t) w-o-w to INR 43,800/t ($512/t) exw-Mumbai as on 28 June.

The BF-IF rebar price gap narrowed w-o-w to around INR 6,500-7,000/t ($76-82/t) in Mumbai. IF rebars hold a dominant 65-70% market share in India.

2. Raw material prices drop w-o-w: BigMint’s Odisha iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index dropped by INR 250/t ($3/t) w-o-w to INR 4,800/t ($56/t) on 21 June, driven by weak market sentiment and lower bids in the June auction from the Odisha Mining Corporation (OMC). The drop also comes amid a sharp fall in pellet, sponge iron, and semi-finished steel prices, which prompted buyers to quote well below last month’s levels.

Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices dropped by $4/t w-o-w to $190/t CNF Paradip.

Outlook
Market participants expect trade prices to remain under pressure, with a possibility of these bottoming out by next month.