India: Portside South African thermal coal prices dip further amid high stocks, weak buying

• Traders offer aggressively to drive down price indices
• South African export prices fall, domestic coal holds firm 

South African thermal coal prices dropped again this week at Indian ports, as sellers faced pressure to offload cargo. RB2 (5500 NAR) fell by INR 100/tonne (t) w-o-w to INR 7,600/t, exw-Gangavaram, while RB3 (4800 NAR) slipped INR 200/t to INR 6,600/t. At Vizag, RB2 declined by INR 200/t to INR 7,450/t and RB3 dropped INR 200/t to INR 6,450/t. Market sentiment was weak, due to high inventories and limited buying. Market speculation suggested that some traders made aggressively low offers to drive down price indices.

Domestic coal prices hold firm 

Domestic coal prices remained unchanged w-o-w amid sluggish demand and sufficient availability. BigMint assessed 5000 GCV and 4500 GCV grades at INR 4,700/t and INR 4,250/t exw-Bilaspur. SECL’s recent auction witnessed limited participation, reflecting cautious buying behaviour amid steady prices and subdued industrial offtake.

Sponge iron tags weaken amid subdued buyer sentiment

Sponge iron prices softened further, with CDRI at INR 24,000/t exw-Rourkela, dropping by INR 200/t w-o-w. PDRI closed within the range of INR 21,500-25,500/t across markets and CDRI between INR 24,000-29,100/t. Buyer sentiment remained weak, with purchases driven only by immediate requirements.

India’s portside inventories rise

Thermal coal stocks at Indian ports increased by 4.3% to 16 million tonnes (mnt) in week 24 of CY’25 from 15.35 mnt a week ago.

South African export prices ease

Export prices also saw a decline w-o-w. RB2 was down by $2.5/t at $67.50/t FOB and RB3 by $1.5/t at $56.50/t FOB, reflecting weak global demand and limited buying activity.

South Africa’s Transnet schedules 12-day annual coal rail maintenance

Transnet, South Africa’s state-run rail and port operator, has confirmed that its annual coal line maintenance shutdown will now be held over 15-26 July 2025, lasting 12 days. This revised schedule has been set to ensure both safety and operational targets are met. The decision follows concerns around worker fatigue and system efficiency, while aiming to support Transnet’s rail freight target of 193 mnt in FY’26.

Outlook

The portside thermal coal market is expected to remain under pressure due to low demand, high domestic availability, and continued monsoon impact on industrial consumption. While some opportunistic buying is seen around lower CNF levels, overall sentiment remains bearish. Export prices may stay soft unless freights or global demand picks up.