India: BigMint’s coking coal index inches down on lower bids, falling met coke prices

• Sellers struggle to close deals, tags may fall further
• Fourth round of met coke price cuts likely in China

BigMint’s premium hard coking coal (PHCC) index was assessed at $187/tonne (t) CNF Paradip, India, on 20 June 2025, down by $3/t against the previous assessment on 14 June. Lower bids and falling met coke prices were the primary reasons behind the price drop.

However, a source from an Indian steel mill stated, “The $184/t level should reflect the CFR India index, factoring in offers from Australia, Canada, Mozambique, and the US. Even at $170/t FOB, sellers are struggling to conclude deals, and trades are likely to slip below this level.”

Rationale

BigMint’s coking coal index is derived using data points, i.e., trades, offers, bids, and indicative prices. No deals were recorded during the publishing window. Hence, this category was not considered for index computation and given a weightage of 0%.

Fifteen (15) firm offers, bids, and indicative prices were heard. Out of these, fourteen (14) were considered for price calculation and given 100% weightage.

Factors impacting imported coking coal prices

1. Indian met coke prices drop further; market awaits clarity on QRs: Indian metallurgical (met) coke prices fell further this week, with the 25-90 mm blast furnace (BF) grade down by INR 500/t to INR 29,000/t ex-Jajpur, according to BigMint’s assessments on 18 June. Prices hit a five-year low last week, as per BigMint’s records.

“There was a meeting regarding the future course of action for QRs in met coke imports yesterday. The market is waiting for a final word on the QR. Notably, in December 2024, when the Indian government announced the QRs, they were announced for two quarters of 2025, i.e. January-March and April-June, with the total volume pegged at 713,583 t in each quarter,” stated a domestic coke producer in India.

2. China eyes 4th round of met coke price cuts: With the summer steel off-season underway, China’s metallurgical coke market faced subdued demand, weighed down by persistent inventory pressures and weak cost support. Speculation around a potential fourth round of Chinese met coke price cuts added further pressure on prices.

3. Australian coking coal prices drop: Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices fell $3/t w-o-w to $176/t FOB. Market sentiment remained mixed, with wider price expectations for premium low- and mid-vol coals.