India: Portside Indonesian thermal coal prices remain under pressure

• Low demand, surplus supply pressure Indonesian coal prices
• Rising stocks, flagging sales signal continued market weakness

Indonesian thermal coal prices at Indian ports continued to face downward pressure this week, driven by weak buying interest, improved domestic coal availability, and an increase in vessel arrivals. Market sentiment remained sluggish as limited trading activity kept prices stable across key ports, with subdued industrial demand further weighing on market fundamentals.

Stable portside prices reflect weak market momentum

As per BigMint’s market assessment dated 13 June 2025, Indonesian coal prices held steady across Indian ports, reflecting subdued trading interest. The 5000 GAR grade was assessed at INR 7,700/t at Kandla and INR 7,600/t at Vizag, while the 4200 GAR grade stood at INR 6,050/t at Kandla and INR 5,950/t at Vizag.

The lower 3400 GAR grade also remained unchanged at INR 4,500/t at Navlakhi Port. Market participants reported minimal buying activity, slow cargo movements, and an overall lack of demand, which collectively kept prices flat despite rising coal arrivals.

Domestic coal availability eases import pressure

Domestic coal supplies continue to remain robust, reducing the urgency for imported coal. As of 12 June, coal stocks at Indian power plants stood at 60.96 mnt, slightly lower than the 61.17 mnt recorded the previous week. Despite the marginal decline, inventories are sufficient to support approximately 21 days of power generation under normal operating conditions.

However, the supply situation remains uneven. Several plants particularly nine dependent on domestic coal, five on imported coal, and two relying on washery rejects reported critically low stock levels. This points to localised distribution issues even as overall stock levels remain comfortable.

Port inventories remain largely steady

Thermal coal stocks at Indian ports were mostly stable during week 23 of CY’25. Total inventory stood at 15.35 mnt, marginally lower by 0.3% from 15.39 mnt the previous week. Minimal changes in portside stocks reflects the slow pace of dispatches and weak end-user demand. Some ports witnessed stock drawdowns, while others reported increases, indicating mixed regional trends.

Global price pressure intensifies 

Indonesian benchmark coal prices fell further this week due to lacklustre global demand and oversupply concerns. The 5800 GAR grade declined by $1.01/t to $74.19/t. The 4200 GAR grade registered a steeper fall of $2.21/t to $42/t, while the 3400 GAR grade slipped by $0.77/t to $31.43/t.

The downward trend is being driven by increased production levels in Indonesia, which have led to rising domestic inventories and excess availability in export markets. Additionally, tighter import quotas and weaker industrial output among major coal-importing countries have further dampened global procurement activity.

Continued price pressure expected

Indonesian thermal coal prices at Indian ports are likely to stay under pressure due to ample domestic coal supply and sluggish market activity. Stable port inventories, slow offtake, and rising global supply are expected to keep the market bearish, with little improvement expected unless demand rebounds or import policies shift.