- Rising demand, input costs drive ADC12 price hike
- Major automaker lifts prices to 3-year high in Jun
India’s secondary aluminium market witnessed a rise in alloy ingot prices through May 2025, supported by strong demand from die-casting and auto component manufacturers, along with elevated input costs.
BigMint’s latest assessment for May placed OEM-approved ADC12 at INR 228,000/tonne (t) in Delhi and INR 230,000/t in Chennai, marking an increase of up to INR 2,000/t from April.
A major Indian automaker increased its ADC12 settlement price by INR 5,850/t m-o-m to INR 226,750/t for June deliveries – the highest since May 2022. This surge was attributed to strong global scrap prices and a decline in alloy imports.
Price negotiations – offers high, but buyer resistance grows
Despite sellers quoting high ADC12 prices of INR 232,000-235,000/t, OEMs have begun pushing back. North India-based buyers targeted INR 228,000-230,000/t, while southern buyers negotiated at around INR 230,000-232,000/t.
An OEM in the southern region said, “Sellers are quoting up to INR 233,000/t for ADC12 with 30-day credit, but most negotiations are centred around INR 230,000-232,000/t. Many OEMs are not willing to exceed INR 232,000/t for June.”
The scrap-to-ADC12 spread in June narrowed by INR 4,150/t m-o-m to INR 31,000-32,000/t due to increased Tense costs.
An alloy producer commented, “Even though LME aluminium has remained range-bound at $2400-2450/t, persistently firm scrap prices are keeping ADC12 offers elevated. Sellers are unwilling to go below INR 230,000/t.”
Raw material trends
Imported aluminium scrap prices rose significantly in May. US-origin Tense tags rose by $55/t m-o-m to $1,965/t, while UK-origin Wheels increased by $75/t to $2,480/t. LME aluminium three-month contracts also firmed up by $40/t to $2,450/t. However, domestic Tense prices remained range-bound, with BigMint’s May-end assessment at INR 195,000/t in Delhi and INR 196,000/t in Chennai.
Despite steady local pricing, sentiment remained bullish due to rising global tags and supply tightness reported in previous months. Silicon 553 prices from China dropped $150/t m-o-m to $1,200/t CFR Mundra, offering limited relief to alloy producers.
Will Trump’s aluminium tariff hike to 50% deepen global cost pressures?
US President Donald Trump announced a sharp hike in tariffs on aluminium and steel imports, doubling them from 25% to 50%, effective 4 June 2025.
In FY’25, India exported around 1.38 mnt of aluminium, with just 0.05 mnt going to the US. Given this limited exposure, the impact of the new 25% US tariffs on India’s aluminium and steel sectors is expected to be negligible.
Import trend – scrap inflows ease
India’s aluminium scrap imports fell 3% m-o-m in April to 139,724 t, continuing the downtrend seen over the past three months.
India’s imports of ADC12 ingots remained at zero for the second consecutive month in April 2025, reflecting potential BIS certification challenges or limited appetite for imported material. In contrast, A356 alloyed ingot imports rose sharply by 39.1% m-o-m to 11,185 t from 8,040 t in March.
Auto sector posts mixed performance in May
Vehicle retail sales in India rose 5% y-o-y in May 2025 to around 26 lakh units, mainly due to sustained rural demand. Two-wheeler sales grew 7.3% y-o-y to 16.5 lakh units. However, passenger vehicle sales fell 3% y-o-y to 3.02 lakh units amid weak entry-level demand and financing constraints. Commercial vehicle sales declined 4% y-o-y to 75,600 units amid slow freight movement.
Maruti Suzuki reported a modest 3.2% y-o-y increase in total sales at 180,077 units. While domestic sales fell 5.6%, exports surged nearly 80% to 31,219 units, partially offsetting weak local performance.
Outlook – Will ADC12 prices hold in June?
While alloy prices firmed up in May, the sustainability of elevated ADC12 prices in June remains uncertain. Buyers are increasingly resisting higher offers, and recent trends suggest that negotiations could weigh on realised prices. However, continued strength in imported scrap prices, particularly for Tense, and recent OEM price hikes may limit any significant downside.
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