- CISA mills’ inventories rise by 4% in mid-April
- Tariff talks to influence prices in short term
China’s steel market displayed a mixed trend this week. Notably, domestic prices of hot-rolled coils (HRC) and rebar increased w-o-w, while billets also saw a weekly rise. However, in the raw materials segment, spot iron ore prices declined but coking coal went up over the week.
The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) has announced that the total steel inventory at key Chinese enterprises stood at 16.71 million tonnes (mnt) in mid-April 2025. Inventory levels increased by 670,000 t or 4.2% from 16.04 mnt in early-April 2025.
1. Iron ore spot prices fall by $1/t: The benchmark iron ore fines price fell $1/t w-o-w to $99/t CFR China on 25 April against 17 April. The dip followed renewed caution among market participants amid persistent macro-economic uncertainties. Overall buying interest slowed as fundamentals took focus. Portside prices weakened amid oversupply and muted mill demand, while firm destocking supported a slight rise in lump prices.
a) Spot pellet premium falls w-o-w: Spot pellet premium for Fe 65% grade pellets dipped by $0.30/t w-o-w to $12.60/t CFR China on 23 April.
b) Spot lump premium increases: Spot lump premium edged up by 0.005/t to $0.1500/dmtu w-o-w on 25 April.
2. Coking coal prices up w-o-w: Australian PHCC prices inched up w-o-w to $190/t FoB Australia. Prices have remained range-bound in recent trades. Chinese cokeries are proposing a second round of met coke price hike, effective from the coming week. Some sources expect less chances of further hikes in coking coal prices going forward.
3. Chinese billet prices rise by RMB 40/t ($5/t) w-o-w: Steel billet prices in Tangshan, China, rose by RMB 40/t ($5/t) w-o-w to RMB 2,980/t ($409/t), including 13% VAT, on 25 April. The market showed signs of a rebound this week amid growing speculation over a possible reversal in US-China trade tariffs. Meanwhile, SHFE rebar futures (October 2025 delivery) climbed by RMB 25/t ($3/t) to RMB 3,101/t ($426/t), indicating persistent market caution in the face of sluggish trading and muted downstream demand.
4. Domestic HRC prices rise w-o-w: Chinese HRC offers rise by RMB 20/t ($3/t) to RMB 3,240/t ($445/t) from RMB 3,220/t ($442/t) a week ago, following the uptrend in SHFE futures. SHFE HRC futures increased by RMB 23/t ($3/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,210/t ($440/t) as of RMB 3,187/t ($437/t) last week. This incline is attributed to renewed market optimism after the US temporarily eased tariffs, reducing trade tensions and improving buyer sentiment in China. However, China’s HRC export offers stayed firm w-o-w at RMB 455/t ($62/t).
5. Domestic rebar prices increase w-o-w: China’s rebar offers increased by RMB 30/t ($4/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,240/t ($445/t) from RMB 3,210/t ($440/t) last week, mirroring the rise in SHFE rebar futures. Additionally, SHFE rebar futures (October 2025 contract) stood at RMB 3,110/t ($427/t) for the week, up by RMB 22/t ($3/t) from 3,088/t ($424/t) as of 18 April 2025. This incline is attributed to market sentiments ahead of trade talks.
China’s Shagang Steel has reduced its long steel product prices by RMB 50/t ($7/t) for late-April sales. Revised prices of rebars, coiled rebars, and wire rods are as follows:
- Rebars (16-25 mm): RMB 3,300/t ($453/t)
- Coiled rebars (8-10 mm): RMB 3,410/t ($468/t)
- Wire rods (6-10 mm): RMB 3,320/t ($455/t)
Outlook
In the near term, China’s steel prices are likely to remain sensitive to developments in the US tariff negotiations, with macro factors playing a stronger role than supply-demand fundamentals. Export activity is expected to stay muted as Chinese mills face a sharp drop in new orders since April, alongside growing pressure from anti-dumping probes and trade tensions. Consequently, Chinese steel export prices are expected to weaken further from late April through early May.
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