Australia: Rio Tinto’s iron ore production drops sharply q-o-q in Q1CY’25

• Cyclone-led disruptions cause output loss of 13 mnt
• CY’25 production guidance remains at 323-338 mnt

Rio Tinto’s Pilbara iron ore production stood at 69.8 million tonnes (mnt) in Q1CY’25. On a q-o-q basis, production fell 19% from 86.5 mnt in Q4CY’24, primarily due to disruptions caused by four tropical cyclones, which collectively resulted in an estimated loss of 13 mnt.

The newly commissioned Western Range project in the Pilbara achieved its first ore in March, marking a key milestone. Meanwhile, the Simandou high-grade iron ore project in Guinea is progressing on schedule.

Y-o-y, production was down 10% from 77.2 mnt in Q1CY’24.

At the Iron Ore Company of Canada (IOC), pellet and concentrate production was recorded at 2.3 mnt in Q1CY’25. This marked a 9% decrease q-o-q from 2.53 mnt and an 11% drop y-o-y, largely due to lower concentrator yield despite strong material movement in the mine.

All figures mentioned are on 100% basis, which means that the shipments include material transported from the Pilbara mines to the portside trading facility in China, which may not be sold onward by the group during the same period.

Shipments fall amid logistics disruptions

Rio Tinto’s Pilbara shipments in Q1CY’25 stood at 70.7 mnt (100% basis), down 17% q-o-q and 9% y-o-y. The cyclone-led disruptions constrained logistics early in the quarter, though operations resumed in March, with stock clearance aiding partial recovery.

Guidance remains firm

The miner maintained its production guidance for CY’25 shipments at 323-338 mnt but now expects it to land towards the lower end of the range, given Q1 setbacks. Weather conditions and heritage clearances remain key risks to further recovery. Meanwhile, the iron ore shipment guidance remains contingent on weather conditions.