- Scrap-ADC12 spread widens again in Mar’25
- Mar’25 export offers up on good auto demand
India’s secondary aluminium market witnessed a recovery in March 2025, driven by strengthening demand and a growing scarcity of raw materials. This supply-demand imbalance pushed alloyed ingot prices higher, particularly in the northern and southern regions of the country.
India’s largest automaker announced in April 2025 settlement prices for ADC12 which saw an increase of INR 6,000/tonne (t) and was at INR 218,300/t, as demand improved and raw material shortages reportedly persisted. However, OEMs in the north and south have started quoting at INR 225,000-230,000/t for the upcoming month.
BigMint’s latest assessment in March 2025 shows that OEM-approved ADC12 in Delhi was at INR 226,000/t and in Chennai, at INR 228,000/t, an increase of up to INR 12,000/t m-o-m.
Scrap-ADC12 spread widens again as supply tightens
While the gap between scrap and ADC12 narrowed over the last few months of CY’24 to INR 30,000-31,000/t, it firmed up in February 2025, to INR 33,000-34,000/t and rose further in March to INR 35,000-36,000/t.
Imported aluminium scrap prices increased slightly in March 2025, driven by a marginal uptrend in futures. For instance, US-origin Tense scrap inched up by $70/t to $1,930-1940/t, while UK-origin Wheels rose by $50/t to $2,500/t. Meanwhile, London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month aluminium prices increased marginally by around $2,650/t, recording a slight m-o-m rise.
Market scenario
1. Automotive sales: In March 2025, India’s automobile retail sector experienced a nuanced performance. While overall retail sales saw a slight y-o-y decline of 0.7%, there was a notable 12% m-o-m increase, primarily driven by festive demand in the final week of the month, including Navratri, Gudi Padwa, and Eid.
2. Annual overview (FY’25): For the full fiscal year 2024-25, the auto retail sector demonstrated resilience, achieving an overall growth of over 6% y-o-y. This growth was primarily driven by a 5% increase in passenger vehicle sales, an 8% rise in two-wheeler sales, while commercial vehicle sales remained nearly flat with a slight decline of 0.17%.
Scrap imports rise, ingot imports fall
Aluminium scrap imports increased 20% m-o-m to 144,500 t in March 2025. Tense imports increased 27% m-o-m to 19,000 t, while Taint Tabor was up by 32% m-o-m to 35,500 t.
In contrast, imports of key grades of semi-finished ingots like A356 decreased 18% m-o-m while ADC12 and LM 24 volumes were at almost nil.
BigMint’s assessment of Tense in Delhi was at INR 183,000/t, and Chennai, at 185,000/t- range-bound m-o-m. China-origin silicon 553 prices hovered at $1,440-1,450/t CFR Mundra.
Export market scenario
Indian export offers of ADC12 increased m-o-m in March 2025 to $2,400-2,450/t CFR Japan, despite limited market traction. This rise was driven by improved automotive demand and a shortage of basic raw materials for ingot production in March in Indian markets.
Japan’s domestic car production rose again in February, extending its growth trend for the second consecutive month. Total passenger car output increased by 19% y-o-y to 681,041 units, according to data from eight major automakers, supported by strong local demand and improving supply chains.
India: Maruti Suzuki starts production at Haryana facility
Maruti Suzuki India has commenced commercial production at its Kharkhoda plant in Haryana, which was inaugurated virtually by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in August 2022. The facility will initially produce the compact SUV Brezza with an annual capacity of 250,000 units. With this addition, Maruti Suzuki’s total production capacity, including Suzuki Motor Gujarat, reaches 2.6 million units annually.
Maruti Suzuki sales in Mar’25
In March 2025, Maruti Suzuki India Limited sold a total of 192,984 units. Total volumes in the month included domestic sales of 153,134 units, sales to other OEM of 6,882 units and exports of 32,968 units.
For the financial year 2024-25, the company posted its highest-ever total sales of 2,234,266 units. Total sales include highest-ever domestic sales of 1,795,259 units and highest-ever exports of 332,585 units.
Outlook- prices likely to firm up in near term
The ADC12 alloy market is poised for an upswing in the short term, supported by limited availability of key raw materials and expectations that major automakers will hike prices for May 2025 settlements. Hopes are also being pinned on expectations of a rebound in international demand. The ongoing tightness in scrap supply, coupled with increasing input costs, are likely to drive prices higher.
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