- Iron ore spot, future prices fall sharply w-o-w
- No major export activity from India this week
Iron ore export prices fell this week, as renewed US-China tariff tensions dampened global market sentiment, weighing heavily on Indian seaborne activity. Market participants noted a sharp decline in buyer interest, especially from China, which led to a near-standstill in seaborne trading.
BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index decreased by $3/t w-o-w to $59/t FOB east coast, India, on 10 April 2025. Meanwhile, prices dropped by $0.5/t against the last index update on 7 April. The fines export index has dropped to its lowest level in five months, with current prices last seen in mid-November 2024. The export market remained silent this week, as buyers were away from the market following the ongoing US-China tariff tension.
However, Indian exporters and miners concluded export deals for around 350,000 t of iron ore fines (Fe54-57%) from the east coast last week.
An Indian exporter stated, “Most buyers are in a wait-and-watch mode. They are cautious due to global tariff uncertainties and weak demand from Chinese mills. No export deals were reported this week, compared to a few concluded in the previous week when global index prices hovered above $100/t CFR China.”
Concerns are growing regarding discounts on lower-grade ore, which may widen in the coming days. “As steel mills continue to slow down purchases of imported ore, discounts on low-grade Indian fines could deepen,” noted another exporter.
Exporters are closely monitoring Chinese market cues, but with trade subdued and uncertainty lingering, chances of a short-term recovery appear limited.
A market participant informed BigMint that despite the overall dull sentiment, there was a marginal improvement in buying during the latter half of the day today. “There was some activity in the afternoon session, with some Chinese mills showing interest in imported ore, but it was not strong enough to revive trade.”
Chinese spot prices fall: Benchmark iron ore fines in China dropped by $8/t w-o-w to $96/t CFR on 9 April. Renewed US-China trade tensions weighed on sentiment, with prices falling to a six-month low, prompting Chinese mills to hold back from seaborne purchases. Prices faced downward pressure following market uncertainties, limited trading activity, and expectations of further economic weakness.
DCE iron ore futures down: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the September 2025 contract decreased by RMB 102.5/t ($14/t) w-o-w to RMB 689/t ($94/t) on 9 April.
As per reports, the ongoing macroeconomic concerns and a dip in steel margins led to cautious procurement by Chinese mills. Buyers are focusing on domestic inventories for now, delaying seaborne purchases. The lower buying appetite is clearly impacting Indian export sentiments.
Price indicators
- No deals for Fe 57% were reported during this publishing window, so this category was not considered for price calculations. Therefore, T1 trade was given 0% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
- BigMint received twenty-seven (27) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and twenty (20) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given 100% weightage.
Iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports dropped by 1 million tonnes (mnt) w-o-w to 137.9 mnt on 10 April, according to data published by SteelHome.
Outlook
As per BigMint’s analysis, iron ore fines export prices will likely face volatility amid the current market dynamics. Trades will remain under pressure as exporters are reluctant to sell the material at the current prices.
Leave a Reply