India: BigMint’s coking coal index plunges by $10/t as global prices hit 4-year low

• Drop in China’s crude steel production pressures tags
• Indian mills close 2 deals totalling 50,000 t last week

BigMint’s premium hard coking coal (PHCC) index was assessed at $188/tonne (t) CNF Paradip, India, on 31 March 2025, down by $10/t from $198/t on 13 March. The steep drop was driven by the decline in global prices, which recently hit a four-year low.

Rationale

BigMint’s coking coal index is derived using data points, i.e., trades, offers, bids and indicative prices. Two (2) deals were recorded during the publishing window and were considered for index computation and given a weightage of 50%.

• 20,000 t of Goonyella cargo were booked by a southern India-based steel mill at $187-188/t CNF India last week for April laycans.
• 30,000 t of Australian PHCC were booked by an eastern India-based mill last week at $188/t CNF India.

Six (6) firm offers, bids, and indicative prices were heard. All of these were considered for price calculation and given 50% weightage.

Factors impacting coking coal import prices

Global coking coal prices drop to nearly 4-year low: Australian PHCC prices fell to a four-year low of $166/t FOB in March 2025. These levels were last seen in June 2021. However, prices recovered marginally to around $169/t FOB towards the weekend after dropping earlier last week.

China’s crude steel output declines: Coking coal prices have fallen significantly due to weak global steel production and declining demand, especially from China. To illustrate, China’s cumulative crude steel production for January-February 2025 stood at 166.3 million tonnes (mnt), a 1.5% drop against 167.95 mnt in January-February 2024, as per data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

China’s met coke producers face pressure: Although China’s metallurgical coke tags stabilised after 11 price cuts since late October 2024 and coking plants maintained stable output, mills remained cautious amid weak steel demand. Coke-making margins worsened after the latest mid-March cut, as slower coal price declines kept losses high. Coking plants saw losses widen by RMB 15/t.