- Around 600,000 t of export deals heard
- Discounts expected to widen for lower grades
Iron ore fines prices in India saw an uptick this week as exporters actively concluded deals in the seaborne market. Increased inquiries, particularly for lower-grade fines, fuelled trade activity ahead of the financial year-end. Market participants reported stable discounts for now at 20-21%, though some foresee an increase in the coming days.
BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index increased by $2/t w-o-w to $64/t FOB east coast, India, on 27 March 2025. Export trades picked up this week, with three deals of around 160,000 t fines (Fe57%) concluded at $73-76/t CFR China recently. A few more deals of around 300,000 t fines (Fe50-55%) were also concluded.
A miner reportedly sold three Supramax fines cargoes (Fe57%, 160,000 t), but the deals are yet to be confirmed from the seller’s end.
A trader commented: “A surge in inquiries from Chinese buyers has led to more transactions for lower-grade material. Deals for below Fe 55% grade fines were concluded from both the east and west coasts, indicating stronger buying interest.”
However, not all exporters were keen to sell at current levels. “Some of us are waiting for a better price as our sourcing costs are higher. Negotiations are ongoing, and we expect more clarity in the coming week,” said another source.
A miner said, “We are not offering iron ore for exports following the expiry of our EC limit this fiscal. However, some miners from Odisha have concluded deals for the April delivery.”
On the other hand, the recent announcement of a 10% cut in steel production from certain Chinese mills improved the overall market sentiment. This led some sources to expect additional production cuts and a recovery in the downstream steel market, which is struggling with overcapacity and weak margins. Meanwhile, other market participants noted that the outlook remains positive as hot metal production continues to trend upward.
While the market remains active, uncertainty persists regarding the price dynamics. Traders are closely watching freight rates and Chinese buying patterns, which will influence pricing in the short term. For now, exporters remain cautiously optimistic as demand picks up momentum.
Chinese spot prices up: Benchmark iron ore fines in China increased by $1/t w-o-wto $103/t CFR on 26 March as market participants downplayed concerns over steel production cuts. With most mills remaining profitable, major voluntary output reductions seem unlikely unless mandated or financially strained mills cut production. The focus remains on sustaining or expanding hot metal output to meet seasonal demand.
DCE iron ore futures rise: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the May 2025 contract opened at RMB 790/t ($104/t), rising by RMB 28/t ($4/t) w-o-w on 27 March.
Price indicators
- Three (3) deals of Fe57% were reported in this publishing window and considered for price calculations. Therefore, T1 trade was given 50% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
- BigMint received twenty-one (21) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and sixteen (16) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given a 50% weightage.
Outlook
As per BigMint’s analysis, the iron ore fines export market will head north, with more export deals expected to be heard from India in the coming days.
Leave a Reply