India: Trade-level BF rebar prices edge up w-o-w ahead of Holi festival

• Supply shortages support BF prices
• IF rebar tags edge higher w-o-w

Trade-level blast furnace (BF) rebar prices edged up w-o-w across major markets amid ongoing material shortages. A pre-Holi slowdown in the trade segment and logistics disruptions further constrained supplies, leading to a scarcity of material in the distribution channel, according to sources. Demand in the trade segment remained slow this week.

Major private steel mills increased rebar prices by INR 750/tonne (t) ($9/t) this week. Post revision, list prices hovered at INR 54,000-54,500/t ($620-626/t) on landed basis.

Trade-level BF rebar prices edged up by INR 100/t ($1/t) w-o-w to INR 54,400/t ($625/t) exy in Mumbai, as per BigMint’s assessment on 13 March. Prices are exclusive of GST at 18%.

In the projects segment, prices hovered at around INR 53,000-54,000/t ($609-620/t) FOR Mumbai.

Update on projects

L&T’s Water & Effluent Treatment (WET) business, in a joint venture with Lantania (Spain), secured a contract from ACWA Power to build the 300,000 cubic meters/day Ras Mohaisen Desalination Plant in Saudi Arabia, including intake, storage, automation, and a solar PV plant.

Factors impacting market dynamics

1. IF rebar prices edge up w-o-w: Induction furnace (IF) rebar trade prices edged up w-o-w due to improved bookings, with market participants securing adequate quantities, which supported prices. However, market activity slowed ahead of Holi due to labour and logistics challenges. Inventory idling time decreased to 8-10 days, with no selling pressure on mills. According to BigMint’s assessment, IF rebar prices rose by INR 100/t ($1/t) w-o-w to INR 49,400/t ($568/t) exw-Mumbai. However, with bookings slowing down due to Holi, there might be inventory pressure in the coming days. As a result, prices may face pressure in the near term.

The BF-IF rebar price gap narrowed to INR /t ($/t) in Mumbai, where IF rebars hold a dominant 65-70% market share.

2. Raw material prices range-bound: BigMint’s Odisha iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index inched up by INR 50/t ($0.57/t) w-o-w to INR 5,100/t ($59/t) on 8 March. Odisha’s iron ore market remained steady amid ongoing supply constraints. Market participants noted there was uncertainty regarding price trends due to limited material availability in key mining regions.

Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices edged down by $3/t w-o-w to $199/t CNF Paradip.

3. National Highway construction: India’s National Highway (NH) construction stood at 7,000 km during the April-January period. NH construction stood at 1,147 km in January 2025, as per data released by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH).

Outlook
Trade-level BF rebar prices are likely to exhibit an uptrend amid the hike in list prices and ongoing material shortages.