Imported pet coke prices into India have corrected by 32% against their highs recorded in March 2022, just when the Russia-Ukraine war had broken out. Price of the Saudi-origin material (9% sulphur) is currently assessed at $174/tonne (t) while the US-origin (6.5% sulphur) one is at $175/t, CFR India.
Imported pet coke prices touched their all-time high in March 2022 at $262/t earlier this year. The hike was in line with increased thermal coal prices following changed trade dynamics post-sanctions on Russia by western and a few Asian countries.
However, if we compare current pet coke prices with those before the war (January 2022), the same are still higher by 15%, as demand from cement manufacturers was weak during that time of the year due to the Covid outbreak in India.
Following the imported pet coke price trend, domestic pet coke prices have also plunged by 21% from their highs in March this year. If we compare the current prices against January 2022, the same are trading at 20% higher in the range of INR 16,600-20,200/t ($200-244/t), across different refineries and modes. However, domestic pet coke prices are still costlier against the imported fuel.
India’s pet coke buying pattern for 2022
When both imported and domestic pet coke prices were trending at high levels, Indian cement buyers opted for relatively cheaper Venezuelan pet coke to satiate their demand and imported about 0.51 mnt during the year (July-October).
However, later on, Venezuelan pet coke availability became an issue amid limited berthing facility there at ports and the long hauls. Also, with the drop in thermal coal prices from October, pet coke prices also dropped and Indian buyers were back to booking their traditional Saudi and US origin pet coke.
Russian thermal coal also gained temporary popularity from cement players for a few months in June-October, 2022, because it was available cheap. The Indian cement sector imported 0.98 mnt of Russian thermal coal during January-November 2022, against almost nil last year.
However, its popularity dropped when imported pet coke prices and Russian thermal coal prices were at same levels in October as fuel with higher GCV is the more preferred option for cement plants.
Indian pet coke market dynamics
India’s pet coke consumption rose by 41% y-o-y this year (January-November) to 22.4 mnt, while domestic production rose by 14% to 14.2 mnt. India’s pet coke imports rose by 130% during January-November, to 8.9 mnt compared to the same period last year.
This happened as domestic pet coke production in India was hampered during the year with few key refineries being shut down due to maintenance and also because imported pet coke was available cheaper against domestic. Also, consumption rose in line with improved construction activities and pick-up in cement demand, amid absence of Covid restrictions for majority part of the year.
Outlook
With Covid again surging in China and a few other countries, the Indian market is on alert and is now doing cautious buying. With thermal coal prices being subdued, a further fall in pet coke demand and prices is expected in the near-term.
Leave a Reply