Australian total thermal coal export shipments dropped by 9% m-o-m to 12.78 million tonnes (mnt) in November, according to CoalMint’s vessel line-up data.
While the drop can be attributed to exports fall in the case of Asian countries like South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam, exports to India recorded a significant rise in November.
Shipments to India increased in both percentage and absolute terms to 1.03 mnt against 0.17 mnt in October 2022. The traditional 5500 NAR grade thermal coal is not arriving at Indian ports but, instead, the 4600 NAR and 5100 NAR, used by Indian sponge iron producers, have gained more popularity which is being reflected in their increased imports into India.
The 4600 NAR has fixed carbon (FC) content of 42-43% and volatile matter (VM) content of 27-28%. The same is being used for blending with South African and domestic coals, resulting in their increased imports. Along with India, shipments to Japan picked up 8% m-o-m to 7.21 mnt on expectations of harsher winters ahead that will result in increased power demand.
Export shipments to other Asian countries
Australia’s thermal coal exports to its usually top destinations, South Korea and Taiwan, were down by 41% and 33% m-o-m respectively. This happened as these countries bought more of relatively cheaper Indonesian coal. Indonesian thermal coal exports to South Korea and Taiwan increased by 22% and 27% m-o-m respectively in November.
Exports to Europe plunge
*Qty in mnt
Australian coal shipments to European countries recorded a 66% m-o-m drop in November. This was because European countries are sufficiently stocked up with both coal and LNG and also because of the not-so-cold winter yet this year. Europe’s gas storage stock stood at 92% in November, much above the last 5-year average, impacting its coal requirement.
Outlook
Australian thermal coal exports may see a rise in the coming months amid expectations of harsher winters ahead. With China relaxing its Covid restrictions, its coal requirement may go up and push up Indonesian coal demand in the process. This will drive some Asian countries to look for more of Australian coal to meet their power demand.
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