A total of 1.8 million tonnes (mnt) of imported coal are set to arrive at Indian ports between 19 October -1 November, 2022, CoalMint’s vessel line-up data showed.
But this volume is lower than the two-week average of 4 mnt of arrivals.
Factors that pulled down volumes are higher domestic coal output and slower demand from the cement, sponge iron, and brick-kiln sectors. These sectors are avoiding procurements due to the still elevated global coal prices. As a result, the import volumes remained lower.
India’s coal output rose by 14% y-o-y over January-September, 2022 to 637 mnt, while dispatches in this period rose 11% y-o-y to 641 mnt. Global thermal coal prices have risen over 30% on a yearly-basis over January-September, 2022.
The export duty on steel has resulted in an oversupply in the domestic market in India. This, coupled with availability of cheaper import options due to bearish global steel demand sentiments, is impacting operations of Indian steel mills and subsequently their coking coal requirements.
Out of the total 1.8 mnt slated to arrive at Indian ports, thermal coal volumes are seen at the highest at 65%, as shipments from South Africa, Indonesia, Australia, and Russia occupy the major spots.
Coking coal volumes are seen at 26% of the total quantity arriving, with shipments originating from the US, and Australia being the highest.
Around 0.1 mnt of Russian PCI coal are set to arrive for Bhushan Power, while Sanvira Industries is set to bring in 0.1 mnt of US pet coke.
Thermal coal vessel arrival
Of the major 65% share of thermal coal, as per CoalMint’s vessel line-up data, shipments from South Africa are set to take the highest share, followed by Indonesia, and Australia.
Adani Enterprise will be the highest receiver of imported coal from all these countries, followed by 0.1 mnt of South African coal to be taken by Saraogi Udyog. Around 0.1 mnt of Indonesian coal will be taken by Adani Power.
Ultratech Cement is set to bring in 0.2 mnt of Russian coal in the coming weeks, the data showed.
A strong rise in domestic coal output and dispatch volumes in the last few months has resulted in lower imports of thermal coal into India.
Coking coal
Coking coal supplies from the US are set to be the highest in the coming weeks, followed by Australia and Russia.
SAIL will be the highest receiver of coking with 0.3 mnt of supplies coming in from the US, and 0.1 mnt of Australian supplies. JSW Steel is set to bring in 0.1 mnt of Russian supplies to be used in its COREX technology.
Short-term outlook
Wet weather conditions in Australia, Transnet’s union strike in South Africa, and rising Indonesian coal prices amid renewed Chinese demand are set to cap any major increase in shipments from these countries.
On the other hand, coking coal imports are likely to remain sluggish due to heavy rains in Australia and slowed-down steel demand in India.
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