India’s thermal coal imports fell by 12% m-o-m to 9.48 million tonnes (mn t) in Nov’21, amidst improved domestic supply and due to high fluctuations in global thermal coal prices.
As per CoalMint data, the highest m-o-m fall of 44% was recorded in imports from South Africa at 1.13 mn t. Imports from Indonesia fell by 6% m-o-m to 5.02 mn t while shipments of Australian coal dropped by 7% m-o-m to 1.9 mn t.
Redirected Australian coal cargoes coming from China also reduced by 34% m-o-m to 0.31 mn t.
After a constrained supply scenario over the last few months, offerings by Coal India Ltd (CIL) and its subsidiaries in a series of auctions held in Nov’21 witnessed an exponential growth at 19.47 million tonnes (mn t) against 1.62 mn t in Oct’21 and 5.08 mn t in Sep’21.
CIL’s coal output also rose by 4% m-o-m to 53.8 mn t in Nov’21. The company ramped up production to keep pace with rising demand.
| Month | Production | Offtake |
| Apr’21 | 41.89 | 54.13 |
| May’21 | 42.08 | 55.14 |
| Jun’21 | 40.01 | 51.34 |
| Jul’21 | 42.58 | 50.59 |
| Aug’21 | 42.6 | 48.73 |
| Sep’21 | 40.65 | 48.42 |
| Oct’21 | 49.8 | 56.66 |
| Nov’21 | 53.8 | 56.78 |
Volatility in global prices
Thermal coal prices saw noticeable fluctuations last month, moving up by an average of $30/t in the first three weeks amid a rise in gas prices in Europe and strong winter restocking demand from China.
By the end of the month, prices corrected by $35/t amid the rising number of Omicron cases across the globe.
Port-wise coal imports
| Indian Ports | Oct’21 | Nov’21 | % Change (m-o-m) |
| Ex-Mundra | 0.46 | 1.23 | +167 |
| Ex-Gangavaram | 1.19 | 0.70 | -41 |
| Ex-Krishnapatnam | 1.18 | 0.61 | -48 |
| Ex-Vizag | 0.82 | 0.59 | -28 |
| Ex-Mangalore | 0.13 | 0.19 | +46 |
*Qty in mn t
Sector-wise imports
Sponge iron: Thermal coal imports by the sponge iron sector recorded a sharp fall of 40% m-o-m in Nov’21 to 0.72 mn t. Amidst the volatile market and sufficient stock, buyers took a backseat on booking imported coal.
Power: Indonesian thermal coal prices, that had been rallying since past few months, witnessed their first downward correction in November, motivating power plants based in the coastal belt to resume import bookings. Subsequently, imports by the power sector went up by 3% m-o-m in Nov’21 to 1.83 mn t.
Cement: Imports from cement makers fell slightly by 2% m-o-m to 1.2 mn t last month amid lower sales (of cement) in several parts of the country.
Outlook
As per CoalMint’s analysis, thermal coal imports are likely to gain momentum in December due to the decline in global thermal coal prices. Imports from South Africa may see a modest rise in December while those from Indonesia would remain range-bound amid limited availability of spot cargoes due to heavy rains this year.
Leave a Reply