Coal has remain a key source for energy requirement across the globe as evident by the fact that exports of coal and coke stood at 1300 MnT in CY18, as per the data compiled by SteelMint Research.
Most of the coal exporting markets were benefitted by the rise in demand from Asia, which were led by higher electricity requirement and robust steel growth.
On the future outlook, trade of thermal coal is likely to be affected by a fall in imports from most developed countries, as governments accelerate their energy transition and phase out coal-fired power generation.
Countering these trends, countries in South and Southeast Asia, are expanding their coal-fired power generation and are expected to be the key sources of import growth.
While, in case of coking coal market, demand is likely to be supported by strong world industrial production growth, and thus strong steel output.
On the supply side, Australia is likely to remain the largest coal exporter, amid expected recovery from weather, industrial action, technical and infrastructure-related disruptions in CY17 and CY18. However, Australia’s market share would fall with a rise in capacity addition from other exporters.
On the demand side, major coal consumer, China, is likely to witness decline as domestic production recovers after several years of industry reforms.
Key Take-Away from Major Coal Exporters which had affected global coal trade:
Australia: Rise in Australian coal exports reflects an expected recovery from supply disruptions and modest production growth.
Indonesia: Indonesian coal exports were aided by a raise in production target by the government, which was intended reduce the country’s trade deficit.
Russia: Rise in Russian coal exports was predominantly driven by infrastructure developments at its eastern port — which supplies coal to Asia.
United States: US coal exports had attained a 6-year high total during CY18 supported by strong prices and rising Asian demand.
Colombia: Colombian coal exports declined in 2018, driven by an ongoing lack of investment in the country’s coal sector.
South Africa: Exports have been weighed down by a range of factors, including weather-related delays at RBCT, higher prices dampening demand from price-sensitive India, ongoing infrastructure bottlenecks and subdued mining investment.
Canada: Canadian exports which chiefly consist of coking coal, had witnessed increased demand due in part to continued steel production capacity growth in India & South East Asia.
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