South African coal exports have exhibited hefty decline on the monthly basis in Jul’18, as a result of the seasonal fall in demand from its major customer-India, while supplies to Pakistan and South Korea also remain subdued during the month.
Data from South African customs shows that the country has exported 5.13 MnT coal in Jul’18, down 21% M-o-M from 6.47 MnT in Jun’18, but up 4% Y-o-Y from 4.92 MnT in Jul’17.
The country has recorded a minor drop in exports during the first 7 months of CY18 (Jan’18-Jul’18) which were recorded at 45.15 MnT, against 45.37 MnT during the same period last month.
The month of Jul’18 had witnessed a fall in coal receipt from India after buyers had already covered much of the demand for monsoon pre-stocking by attaining their highest monthly imports in Jun’18.
Among the other major consumers of South African coal -Pakistan and South Korea, both had seen their imports falling in Jul’18. Taiwan and Sri Lanka had not received any coal for the past two months.
Finding cue from the rising international prices, the previous months’ surge in prices had made South African coal fallen out of favour against coal from other origins. However, with the recent correction in price, South African coal has gained preference again among the buyers.
Moreover, demand from India is likely to improve as they look to restock coal after the monsoon, wherein many of the port operations would resume after the rainy season.
Consequently, the confluence of these factors had slightly boosted the futures of South African coal index. Coal Index API-4 was recorded at USD 97.9 for Sep’18, while future index for Oct’18 was accessed higher at USD 98.8 as on 3 Sep’18.
Major Coal Importers:
Indian coal imports dropped 25% M-o-M to 2.87 MnT in Jul’18, but were still 70% higher on the year from 1.69 MnT in Jul’17. Imports of South African coal by the country have reached 21.68 MnT during the first 7 months of CY18, up 12% Y-o-Y recorded from 19.32 MnT in Jan’17-Jul’17.
Pakistan’s coal import fell 33% M-o-M to 0.62 MnT in Jul’18, which was also 5% lower on the year from 0.65 MnT in Jul’17.
South Korean import was down 9% M-o-M to 0.42 MnT in Jul’18 against 0.46 MnT in Jun’18.
Coal Import by the UAE has increased 4-folds in Jul’18 to 0.2 MnT. The country has imported 0.58 MnT coal in Jan’18-Jul’18 period.
Source: South African customs | Quantity in MnT
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