The Office of the Chief Economist in the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science of the Australian Government has stated in a report that Coking Coal import trend in China and India will be opposite in the medium term.
India’s Coking Coal imports are forecasted to rise by 2% from that in 2016 to around 52 MnT in 2017. The rise in the imports will be driven by the incremental consumption of the coal in the rising steel production. The Indian government is expected to ramp up spending on infrastructure and construction, which will require steel. For 2018, the Coking Coal imports are forecasted to reach around 56 MnT, growing at 8.6%. The growth in the coal imports is further forecasted at 6.3% in 2019 to reach around 60 MnT in that year.
In contrast, the report forecasted that Coking Coal imports will decline in China from the 2016 levels at 5.9% to around 56 MnT in 2017 as there will be no cut in domestic Coking Coal production. Moreover, steel production and construction activity have moderated to restrict growth in the coal consumption. According to the report, Coking Coal imports are forecasted to decline in China by 11% in 2018 to around 50 MnT, and by 12% in 2019 to reach around 44 MnT.
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