China: Iron ore prices dip to $90/t on weak spot activity despite restocking interest in China

• Improving mill margins fuel hopes of demand recovery
• Weak spot activity and cautious futures sentiment persist

Iron ore fines (Fe 61%) spot prices edged down by $1/dmt d-o-d to $90/dmt CFR North China on 13 October 2026, compared with $91/dmt on 12 October. However, prices recovered slightly towards the end of the day as market sentiment improved on expectations of a gradual recovery in demand.

Market activity strengthened on improved interest in Pilbara Blend Fines (PBF), reflecting expectations of better demand amid recovering steel mill economics. Sources indicated that the second round of coke price cuts could improve mill profitability and encourage higher iron ore procurement ahead of a marginal rise in steel output. Meanwhile, relatively low iron ore prices prompted some buyers to replenish stocks opportunistically, lending support to market sentiment.

Despite these positive signals, subdued trading activity and continued pressure on steel margins capped the recovery. China’s iron ore port stocks declined for the third consecutive day amid weak market activity, highlighting persistent uncertainty over near-term demand.

DCE futures ease amid cautious sentiment

January 2027 iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) declined by RMB 7.5/t ($1/t) to RMB 675/t ($101/t) on 13 October 2026. The decline reflected cautious market positioning amid subdued spot activity and uncertainty over the pace of demand recovery.

Although coke price cuts and expectations of improved mill profitability offered some underlying support, persistent pressure on steel margins and falling port stock prices limited bullish sentiment in the futures market.